Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has been raising hackles across the Asia-Pacific since his inauguration in June. In his latest broadside directed at the United States, Duterte once again asserted that he wanted all foreign troops out of the Philippines and that he would eventually nix the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Although such a move does not appear to be imminent, it is worth considering its potential implications for the region.

Under Duterte’s administration, the Philippines are moving toward major policy shifts, particularly in regards to U.S. and China relations. China is an emerging outbound investor with a demonstrated financial, technological, and engineering capacity to accomplish major infrastructure projects, such as railways, which can have a transformative impact on Philippine economic development. The U.S. has become a quieter ally in the region, and other regional states have long been diversifying both their economic and security partners to spread risk and to avoid getting entangled in big power tussles. Duterte is following these initiatives now, as well.

What we are witnessing isn’t necessarily a ‘Duterte wave’ of defections to China at the expense of America. More likely, it is a temporary recalibration on the part certain Southeast Asian states that are unsure of American commitment to the region and eager to avoid direct confrontation with China, which in turn is offering large-scale investment and trade deals in exchange for strategic acquiescence. China is offering lucrative packages of technical skills and soft loans for turbo-charged infrastructure projects. But, it remains to be seen how far this rebalancing will go, as other nations in the region shift away from China.

The “Duterte phenomenon” must have prompted much reflection in Washington, and so it should in Tokyo. It may serve Japan better to think twice about the merits of its subordinate relationship with the US.

Rommel Banlaoi argues that President Duterte’s controversial remarks about the U.S.-Philippine relationship are not a signal of distancing, but rather it is an effort of strategic ambiguity on the part of Duterte. Duterte is creating a relationship with China and the U.S. that will best move forward his domestic policy, a key concern for Duterte; however, strategic ambiguity is a difficult strategy for Duterte, the two super powers, and the international community.

The Philippine president’s China visit revealed that countries in the region are thirsty for stability, solidarity and common development, and should be eager to eliminate the various misgivings regarding the South China Sea. Countries in and outside the area should cherish the positive effects of the visit and jointly preserve peace and stability in the South China Sea.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s emerging foreign policy is a cocktail of reckless rhetoric and shrewd strategic calculus. The Duterte administration has made it clear that bilateral relations with America are no longer as special as before; it is simply interested in having beneficial relations with all superpowers without any preferential treatment.

The rise and posture of the Philippines president is not an unpredictable eruption but the natural evolution of a changing global environment, and the result will be a more balanced and safer regional order.

Track II diplomacy’s results remain mixed, but it takes only one successful attempt to provide concrete and specific agenda items for formal talks. It is within this lens that the Ramos-Fu August 2016 meeting in Hong Kong could be appreciated.

Three months ago, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled that there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to the resources in the West Philippine Sea (also known as the South China Sea), and thus that the Philippines has exclusive rights to the territory. China rejected the ruling, and an icy chill overcame the once-friendly bilateral relationship. It is time to bring back some warmth.