What is China’s plan for Latin America?

American markets dominate the Mexican economy and will continue to do so for many decades, but the combination of China’s growing presence in Mexico and the election of a leftist firebrand to the Mexican presidency could further strain U.S. relationships with both of these countries.

The United States did not push Latin America and the Caribbean into China’s arms, but by pulling back, it created space for others to fill. Now, it appears that the United States seeks a course correction.

China’s most recent strides in Latin America are due in large part to a series of carefully crafted policies that advance China’s own interests while addressing Latin America’s top development priorities. The U.S. risks losing influence, competitiveness, and control in Latin America.

Is the Monroe Doctrine back?

During China’s President Xi Jinping most recent visit to the Latin American, he announced a renewed commitment to trade and investment throughout the Americas; by some accounts an estimated $250 billion in the next ten years. A project such as the proposed Nicaragua canal has raised critical questions about Chinese investments in Latin America.

The United States, China, and other nations are now faced with the decision as whether they will work together to put Venezuela on a more sustainable political and economic course. At some point soon, Beijing will have to determine whether China stands a better chance of realizing its fundamental interests by supporting Maduro or by working with the international community to press for change.

The build-up of a large militia in Venezuela, facing no external military aggression, underscores a regime prepared to escalate violence against its own people. China, has provided generous credits, loans, and investments in an amount estimated at upwards of $60 billion, and will likely write off its loses, but more importantly may have to avoid being dragged down into a humanitarian crisis comparable to Syria or a political miasma as cancerous as North Korea, unless the leaders in Caracas change course.

The people of Ecuador will be choosing the fundamental direction of their nation on April 2, and they have a distinct choice. And the choice they make will also impact Ecuador’s relations with its neighbors and also international partners including China and the United States.

China is prepared to expand its presence in the Western hemisphere should the new U.S. president’s protectionist nationalism turn from campaign rhetoric into political reality. It may be premature to cite China as the “defender of free trade,” yet if Mr. Trump pursues a protectionist trade policy, and American consumers feel the rising prices on automobiles, televisions and thousands of other goods produced at cheaper cost abroad, Latin American economies geared for global export markets may look particularly competitive beyond their region.