Over the past few weeks, both the United States and China have been engaged in a high-velocity diplomatic campaign to effectively box each other out of Southeast Asia.

China’s diplomatic forays into Southeast Asia are periodic and predictable. Yet Premier Li Keqiang may have his work cut out for him in upcoming forays to the region. Shifts in diplomatic outlook on the part of both the U.S. and China are changing the rules as tensions arise and polarize the region.

Mahathir’s election victory in Malaysia is likely to signal a shift in the country’s foreign policy vis-à-vis China. Investment deals with China are likely to face greater scrutiny and Malaysia may become more assertive in South China Sea disputes.

The 32nd ASEAN Summit, held in Singapore on April 27 and 28, saw the ASEAN adopting tough language against America’s trade protectionism, while pursuing further its blossoming relations with China.

Chinese tech firms are increasingly committing to market expansion across Southeast Asia. The development of the Digital Silk Road, especially in the ASEAN region, may provide clues about an emerging Chinese model of economic and political influence over information technology markets.

ASEAN hopes to speed up talks on CoC on South China Sea, but an agreement is unlikely within a year.

ASEAN has ably brought together former rivals and among the world’s most (ideologically and socio-economically) diverse nations under a single roof. Yet, with the rise of China and the demise of the old American-led order, the ASEAN is facing an existential moment, which may require strategic soul-searching and major institutional reforms.

Concern over the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s nuclear and missile tests and combating terrorism and extremism constitute two of the key security issues discussed in the recently concluded 31st ASEAN and Related Summits held last November in Manila.