Relations between China and the Philippines have a direct bearing on stability in the South China Sea and peace in the wider Asia-Pacific region. Like waves in the sea itself, the situation fluctuates. But sensible leaders and a clear outline for settling disputes can prevent a breakdown.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Beijing may help set the tone for cordial bilateral ties with China, but could also stir wariness on the part of the country’s longstanding treaty ally, the United States. The Philippines must carefully navigate its position to avoid being seen as favoring either side.

ASEAN toes a delicate balancing act between China and the United States, and the latest ASEAN Summit demonstrates the complexities involved in steering clear of unnecessary tensions.

Indonesia famously played host to Joe Biden and Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face meeting of Biden’s presidency; a milestone in the great power rivalry between East and West. Historically, Indonesia has also been the site of another major international summit - the Bandung Conference which produced a network of “non-aligned” states. Each of these events is a mirror of our modern times as Southeast Asia’s medium-sized powers seek to navigate a contentious climate between the U.S. and China’s competing influences.

China’s next move is the subject of much speculation and worry for observers and enemies. The current conditions of today’s geopolitical stage should lead China towards its Southeast Asian neighbors in what may be its next international outreach campaign.

Positive trade mechanisms have emerged. China remains committed to developing its relationship with the U.S. The recent tension over Taiwan was controlled. Such things and others are a basis for optimism, not despair.

Three primary U.S. goals have their limitations. While it currently enjoys an internal bipartisan consensus on China, diplomatic and security problems, loopholes and contradictions exist for many countries in the region. The U.S. seeks to adjust the system to its advantage.

Can a region as complex and fast-changing as Asia devise and implement a comprehensive development plan? The Jakarta-based Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, which just released its third “Comprehensive Asia Development Plan” (CADP), thinks so.

IPEF negotiations are underway and four joining statements were recently released at the first in-person IPEF ministerial meeting. But Washington’s motives and the direction they lead negotiations remains to be seen, as they seek to build allyship in the Pacific and increase competition with China.

Their positions vary in some details, but the overall thrust is consistent: ASEAN wants peace and prosperity and supports the “one-China” principle. Members have been cautious not to choose sides in a major power rivalry because they see value in both.