IPEF negotiations are underway and four joining statements were recently released at the first in-person IPEF ministerial meeting. But Washington’s motives and the direction they lead negotiations remains to be seen, as they seek to build allyship in the Pacific and increase competition with China.

Their positions vary in some details, but the overall thrust is consistent: ASEAN wants peace and prosperity and supports the “one-China” principle. Members have been cautious not to choose sides in a major power rivalry because they see value in both.

Last October’s G20 Leaders’ Summit – held in Rome, and hosted by then-Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi – produced a declaration brimming with promises to “address today’s most pressing global challenges” and “converge upon common efforts to recover better from the COVID-19 crisis and enable sustainable and inclusive growth” across the world. What a difference a year makes.

The systemic challenge for the U.S. is not China but the worst inflation in 40 years. In fact, fragmentation does not seem to be happening in the real world. Even an Asia-Pacific version of NATO will not likely divide the region, as China will continue to be a major trade partner.

Lacking concrete detail, the framework is burdened by great uncertainty. Moreover, the United States seems to be sending a decoupling signal to China — a questionable strategy. If the U.S. continues along this line, it will be hard to win confidence and cooperation from countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

America finally issued a broad statement on its Indo-Pacific strategy, predictably addressing concerns about China’s influence and spelling out its intention to play into its allies' favor. Meanwhile, ASEAN must respond to the latest development to retain their own autonomy and stability in what many are sure to see as rising tensions.

India is stepping up to seek out stronger relationships with Southeast Asian countries, showing that China is not the only nation in the Pacific region that can provide boons and benefits to friendly partners.

Washington intends to shed its reliance on multilateral mechanisms and form a new economic framework based on bilateral consultations. The IPEF is more of a contract aimed at solving particular issues than an agreement to ratchet up economic integration. And, of course, it aims to dent China’s influence.

ASEAN is the crossroads of the Pacific, and one of the world’s most strategically valuable trade routes. Their high volume of trade with both the U.S. and China put them at the intersection of something else - the escalating struggle between the two superpowers for global supremacy.

The AUKUS defense agreement continues to shake up relations in Southeast Asia, as the nations caught between Australia and China move to protect stability in the region as the staredown between the U.S. and China intensifies.