Tokyo has questioned the reliability of U.S. nuclear protection and has put the issue high on the agenda. Lasting peace in East Asia, however, cannot be achieved simply through nuclear power. The way forward is to focus on common security efforts and include all parties in the discussion.

Four key opportunities present themselves in Northeast Asia, and it's important to grasp them while we can. Compared with the various major structural challenges in the region, the opportunities are few and small. But there are signs that the situation is improving, albeit slowly.

Extended deterrence by the U.S. and ROK, as well as the framing of security as a regional issue requiring alliances, illustrates the spread of NATO-style security thinking. From China’s perspective, this will result in a further imbalance in the region’s security order and requires resolute opposition.

The negative impact of what appears to be a new cold war in East Asia — even as the U.S. forcefully pushes for U.S.-Japan-ROK cooperation — should not be underestimated. There are obvious obstacles within the alliance that will make moving forward difficult.

Japan seeks to further develop its partnerships with ASEAN countries and neighboring states to reassess its place globally amidst tensions between the U.S. and China.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s head, visited South Korea and Japan recently on a proselyting mission to spread the concept of military deterrence. But China and others have adopted more benign security concept. The region cannot afford to repeat the mistake of replacing dialogue with a show of force.

A approach to regional security that’s heavily based on deterrence will only lead to more insecure outcomes. Military strength is an important component, but it should not be pursued to the virtual exclusion of diplomacy. Regional consensus is essential.

The rapid decline in understanding between China and the U.S. has sparked concerns over the peaceful transition from one dominant power to the other.

Positive trade mechanisms have emerged. China remains committed to developing its relationship with the U.S. The recent tension over Taiwan was controlled. Such things and others are a basis for optimism, not despair.

Can a region as complex and fast-changing as Asia devise and implement a comprehensive development plan? The Jakarta-based Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, which just released its third “Comprehensive Asia Development Plan” (CADP), thinks so.