Dear Focus Reader,

As Americans gear up for the highly anticipated presidential elections on November 5, political observers worldwide are closely monitoring the unfolding dynamics. The stakes are high; the election's outcome will not only affect the U.S., it will also have global implications, particularly amid ongoing tensions with Beijing.

In the context of U.S.-China relations, a Trump victory could mean a return to a combative approach towards China, echoing the aggressive policies of his first term. This scenario raises concerns about escalating military tensions in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. A Harris win, however, may signal a continuation of the current competitive strategy, with a greater emphasis on cooperation in critical areas like climate action and global health.

Chinese state media have also voiced concerns regarding how internal divisions within the U.S. could complicate the coherence of its foreign policy, highlighting the lack of substantive debate on China during the campaign. Some analysts suggest that China does not have a preferred candidate for the White House, highlighting that while the rhetoric may differ between candidates, the overall policy direction is likely to remain largely unchanged. Others, however, believe Beijing indicates favor towards Harris due to her perceived continuity and stability.

Though views in China vary, there's consensus that "the second Trump administration would likely bring a greater uncertainty, instability and unpredictability compared with a Kamala Harris presidency," says Chen Dongxiao, president of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.

Ultimately, regardless of the election's outcome, there will likely continue to be heightened tensions over trade, technology, and Taiwan, and the next administration's policies will critically shape the future of the bilateral relationship.Learn more on U.S.-China relations by catching up on our latest Focus content, including topics on people-to-people exchanges, China's economy, and more.