China's Belt and Road Initiative is being tested by COVID-19, as several host countries have requested debt relief. How China proceeds will determine the overall success of the initiative.

A great deal of interest is focussed on the level of Chinese real GDP in 2020. The Chinese GDP in 2020 depends crucially on two developments—the speed of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic and the availability of additional economic stimulus.

China still lacks a high-level of openness and now faces increasing pressure from external rules. If it does not intensify its reforms, it may be encircled by those rules or even be excluded from the newly emerging international system.

When the U.S. Trump Administration’s recently attempted to slam the door on Huawei, China’s leading telecommunication and technology loaded company, he and his China advisors broke the heretofore gold standard in international collaboration; and that has been the world’s semiconductor industry.

Whether the world economy recovers or declines in the coming year will depend upon a number of complex interlocking factors. Unlike SARS, the COVID-19 pandemic endangers the security of the real economy and increases worries.

While the fast-changing nature of COVID-19 makes economic interventions difficult to predict, China's uneven economic recovery may serve as a roadmap for other countries overcoming the outbreak.

The coronavirus pandemic deflated President Trump’s touted trade deal, as data suggests that Beijing will likely fail to meet key commitments due to suppressed global demand. If coronavirus kills the US-China trade deal, other political and economic disagreements could escalate the US-China rivalry into a potential Cold War.

The stability that was expected from the signing of the Phase One trade deal is now a distant reality in the wake of COVID-19. The U.S. and China are entangled in blame games and trade disputes, setting the stage for further, more devastating escalation.

China appears to have considerable room to maneuver in terms of monetary policy. It also has an enormous domestic market and a middle class as large as the European Union. But this doesn’t mean it is turning inward.

China’s digital yuan development program could eventually undermine the dollar’s global primacy in international trade. Its implementation would spark discussion surrounding the overall utility of current global trade relationships under a single reserve currency.