While there are some variables in Trump diplomacy, variables do not necessarily equal uncertainties. Many of the forces affecting US diplomacy and global interactions are constant and predictable.

Donald Trump’s contentious telephone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull caused worried reactions in the United States. Washington’s behavior will consist more of abrasive demands rather than requests and quiet diplomacy. Trump’s America First policy means giving highest priority to U.S. interests, not maintaining cordial alliance relations. That is a major change that Washington’s partners in East Asia and Europe will have to face.

Political, pragmatic, and bureaucratic factors have been pushing Trump to pursue more traditional foreign and security policies. His response to the North Korean missile launch, meeting with visiting Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and recognition of the One China principle resembled those of previous presidents. However, Trump still has major differences with Japan and China, while his continuing Obama’s North Korean policy of castigating the regime, working with other countries like China to apply additional sanctions, deploying regional missile defenses, and refusing to engage with Pyongyang until it recommits to ending its nuclear program will likely still not yield appreciable results besides giving North Korea time to perfect its nuclear and missile capabilities.

The new president’s simplistic and arbitrary approach other countries is a double-edged sword that will bring a series of negative impacts on US foreign policies. While his China policy seems to be a work in progress, his sense of ‘two Chinas’ will pose a serious challenge to the diplomatic framework that has provided stability since the Nixon administration. Meanwhile, China should adhere to its own agenda and avoid being distracted by outside provocations.

The outgoing president gets a mixed score, but a legacy for his successor to draw upon. Being a leader of multilateralism and globalization efforts has been a success that deserves emulation, but the ambivalent use of force diminished its stature as the defender of peace and stability.

The new president plans to combine the power of his country and his personal unpredictability to produce fear and anxiety, which he believes will lead to U.S. benefits and gains. This tactic could win in some cases in the short run, but it’s almost doomed strategically. It will not make the U.S. great again.

If the US should abandon or violate the Iranian nuclear accord, an agreement reached after years of negotiation and with consent of European allies, the results would only be negative for the US in terms of its international image, moral high ground and Trump’s start on diplomatic front. Such a move would signal to the world that the US cannot be trusted.

Traditional hands-off posture toward foreign entanglements could well be the hallmark of the incoming administration, as it pursues the new president’s call to put “America first”. It remains to be seen whether that is a formula for isolation or trade wars in the modern era.

President Barack Obama makes his final appearance at the United Nations General Assembly this week, with the world looking far different from the one he envisioned taking shape under his leadership when he first addressed the annual gathering eight years ago.

As the national conventions loom ahead, Americans prepare to choose the next president on the basis of economic issues. But it is the return of the neoconservatives that will overshadow the discourse on foreign policy – and China.