A few short years ago, China and the United States appeared to be cooperating; today, the two are rivals in nearly every respect. What will become of this relationship, and how can existing international institutions and principles shape its future?

The two countries are entering a phase of intense competition.

For forty years, China and the U.S. maintained relations that despite disagreements, were marked more by cooperation than friction – a strategy of cooperation that survived eight U.S. presidents. Though there were vicissitudes and various crises during each presidency, China and the U.S.’ relationship as “cooperating rivals” had not seen fundamental changes, until recently.

Professor Graham Allison of Harvard has suggested that the US/China relationship might fall into the ‘Thucydides trap’, referring to conflict between an established power and a newly rising one. This is a possibility but not a certainty: both countries will have to take care to avoid exacerbating difficulties in the relationship and to make the right choices among the different scenarios for the way forward, and as things stand, China appears better placed to manage this change.

The US, in launching a ‘trade war’ against China, is appealing to the thinking and rhetoric of the late-twentieth-century - Cold War. This is inappropriate to the modern age, as the world has moved on and become multipolar. China does not itself seek hegemony, but has a number of options to build alliances with which to repel any US hegemonic ambitions, which are thus doomed to failure.

America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy and China’s Belt and Road Initiative are not necessarily competitors.

ASEAN nations are seeking clarity on who makes the best ally in the Indo-Pacific: China or the United States.

Escalating tensions between China and the United States will not benefit either. Instead, a party watching from the sidelines has the most to gain.

The Trump administration’s Indo-Pacific Vision is not an alternative to Chinese and other development initiatives in the Asia Pacific. It is a geopolitical play that is likely to benefit mainly advanced economies. What the Asia Pacific needs is a sustainable, long-term plan for accelerated economic development – not new geopolitical divisions.

Over the past few weeks, both the United States and China have been engaged in a high-velocity diplomatic campaign to effectively box each other out of Southeast Asia.