The world economy has clearly caught a cold. The outbreak of COVID-19 came at a particularly vulnerable point in the global business cycle. World output expanded by just 2.9% in 2019 – the slowest pace since the 2008-09 global financial crisis and just 0.4 percentage points above the 2.5% threshold typically associated with global recession.

It’s not a question of wanting to follow through but having the ability to do so, given the complex downward pressures brought by coronavirus epidemic.

The trade deal has been signed, but recent factors, like the novel coronavirus, make it challenging for China to meet its trade requirements. Instead of moving forward, the US-China relationship has moved sideways.

Made-In-China 2025 is China’s controversial agenda that could propel it to be the world’s leading nation in manufacturing. While the plan was formally withdrawn after receiving US backlash, Beijing may still be operating along that plan—just less transparently.

United States stretches reason past the breaking point as it applies pressure to the company. Britain is adopting the technology anyway, while Meng Wanzhou’s rights continue to be violated in Canada.

The road to trade peace is treacherous, especially since most of the obligations under phase one are one-sided and place China at a disadvantage. But tariffs are becoming less useful as leverage for the United States in the face of Chinese economic resilience.

While the Trump administration has been quick to celebrate the recently-signed Phase One trade deal between the US and China, the deal is not progress for Sino-US relations. Instead, the limited agreement simply secures US affirmation of Chinese plans that were already underway.

While the US-China trade war has reached a milestone with the signing of the Phase One deal, many fear that the negative economic impacts of the original tariffs will go unnoticed.

The Phase One Agreement between China and the U.S. on their trade dispute was signed in Washington, D.C. on 15th January, sealing a temporary truce in their trade war, which had already lasted almost two years. This is a most welcome development, not only for China and the U.S., but also for the rest of the world. It is expected to usher in a period of relative calm and stability as well as reduced uncertainty and unpredictability, which should in turn increase both investment and consumption globally, and result in higher rates of economic growth.

"The more fundamental, and more difficult, issues —including dropping all tariffs, and structural changes in China — are left to phase two."