Why was the National Security Strategy Report so hostile to China?

The convergence of strategic threats to India, and the legacy of failed American policy in the region, have seen the resurgence of the once defunct Quadrilateral Security grouping. In doubling its efforts to serve as a regional counterweight to Chinese influence to ensure the sustained freedom of the seas and to stymie any Chinese efforts to gain control over crucial sea lanes to potentially block free trade, India would signal its leadership role.

Recently, the Trump administration notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) that the United States opposes granting China market economy status at the WTO, an opinion also supported by the European Union. Under the World Trade Organization (WTO) terms, China should have graduated last year to market-economy status.

President Donald Trump told a gathering of business leaders in Tokyo that Japan has an unfair advantage on trade and that he intends to fix that imbalance by making it easier to do business in the U.S.

It is not ideology that Beijing should count on, then, but incompetence. With TPP and the Paris Agreement, the Trump White House has been driven by rank opportunism – not in pursuit of a coherent set of policy goals, but rather to claim alpha status by the simplest means available.

Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China and the U.S. have entered into a new structure, namely an emerging dual leadership structure, in the Asia-Pacific. This trend represents the future direction of U.S.-China relations.

When US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) this past January, many observers saw that decision as a boon for China. East Asia countries can no longer count on US-supplied public goods to maintain peace and deliver prosperity, they will face some tough choices.

If there ever was a time when Asian nations could ignore transatlantic affairs or when Europe could proceed without considering Asian developments, those days are long gone.

While the Trump administration has announced withdrawal from TPP, in favor of bilateral economic cooperation and negotiation to protect US interests, it does not necessarily mean the US has given up its quest for dominancy in global trade rule-making. Meanwhile, other TPP signatories, including Japan, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, are not willing to let the deal fall by the wayside. That means the spirit of TPP lives on even if the agreement itself does not.

Donald Trump is a new type of political phenomena that has caught the world off guard. His unpredictability and lack of experience set the stage for a perfect storm of wild-card events that will almost certainly be an early theme during his presidency. While it is China’s decision how it reacts to Trump, tact and precision will be Beijing’s greatest defense in not only ensuring that relations with the U.S. do not deteriorate further, but in safeguarding key aspects of the current international system.