America shamelessly uses other countries to further its own agenda, disregarding their needs. It has split the world and kept it in a state of perennial conflict since World War II and is now invoking the nightmarish return of the Cold War.

Geopolitical tensions unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to influence Sino-American relations and the reshaping of state relationships in Southeast Asia.

The Phillipines geographic location has long made it a close trading partner to China, but a colonial history with the U.S. has left strong bonds with its century-old ally to this day. Now, as China and the U.S. talk themselves into more hostile territory, how the Philippines will navigate two of its most consequential relationships will be crucial to surviving any sort of escalation.

Three primary U.S. goals have their limitations. While it currently enjoys an internal bipartisan consensus on China, diplomatic and security problems, loopholes and contradictions exist for many countries in the region. The U.S. seeks to adjust the system to its advantage.

As a former U.S. colonial subject, the Philippines has retained close cultural and official ties to Washington. The new Philippine president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shown that he intends to deviate from his predecessor’s distancing from the United States by rebuilding relations with the West while simultaneously drawing closer to Asian nations - including China.

Washington’s initiatives are being pitched as an “alternative to China,” as they divide developing countries and solidify U.S. control. The IPEF may compete with ASEAN, raising questions about the bloc’s centrality.

Will the G20 foreign ministers meeting bring China-U.S. ties back on track? Only with continuous improvements in the overall bilateral atmosphere can any consensus on cooperation — and the stability of the world — be effectively guaranteed.

Is the U.S. ready to meaningfully engage with the Asia-Pacific region? Their latest offering comes in the form of the IPEF, and the differences between the U.S.-led trade pact and competing ones led by Asian powers will show whether American leadership has brought enough to the table.

The IPEF - a U.S.-initiated trade and development partnership - is poised to bring in enthusiastic participation from several nations in the Asia-Pacific region. Notably, Southeast Asian states are well represented among members, giving the U.S. considerable influence right in China’s backyard.

Six factors suggest that the IPEF will not succeed: meager benefits for developing economies, new and unpopular commitments, disproportionate benefits for the U.S., vague negotiating plans, uncertainty of the framework’s survival under a new American administration and skepticism by U.S. allies.