The widespread protests in Hong Kong, which led to the defeat of a perceived pro-Beijing extradition bill, has only emboldened the pro-independence movement in Taiwan. With all sides hardening their respective positions, Taiwan is quickly turning into the front-line of Sino-American Cold War in the Indo-Pacific.

The United States is taking a huge risk by assuming China’s recent rhetorical and military aggression directed at Taiwan is just more of the same diplomatic gamesmanship. It is time to take seriously the PRC’s intentions to regain unity with Taiwan through force.

As Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election approaches, both the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the opposition Kuomintang Party (KMT) face divisive, close-fought primary battles among multiple candidates. Growing political volatility in Taiwan poses a major threat to Washington’s cautious balancing between Taipei and Beijing.

Despite rising tension across the Taiwan Strait, Tsai has not rushed to seek independence, while the mainland has maintained its patient policy. Thus no crisis has yet emerged — still, Taiwan, mainland China, and the US should all strive to relax tension and resume peaceful cross-strait development to avoid a new cold war.

Trump’s Taiwan policy endangers peace and stability between the Taiwan Strait and risks causing catastrophe in China-US relations. Tsai Ing-wen should not mistake Trump’s policy as US support for Taiwanese independence and should see it as it is: a way to hedge against the mainland.

After promoting its rigid family planning regime for decades, the Chinese government now faces the economic consequences of the one-child policy.

Early this week, the U.S. House of Representatives passed two bills related to Taiwan, drawing a strong denouncement from Beijing.

China has urged the United States to refrain from having any official contact with Taiwan, thus harming China-US ties, after the US House of Representatives passed a bill encouraging visits between US and Taiwan officials.

The worsening relations between the mainland and Taiwan place the United States in an awkward and potentially dangerous position. Washington should retain the right to sell weapons to Taipei so the Taiwanese can deter an attack from the mainland, or if deterrence fails, have a decent chance of repelling such an attack. Conversely, the United States must make it clear to the Taiwanese leadership that, fond as we might be of democratic Taiwan, America will not risk war with China to protect the island and preserve its de facto independence.

While issues in bilateral economic relations and trade are negotiable, the one-China policy is not. The Trump administration should carefully sum up the lessons of previous administrations on the Taiwan question and minimize its impact on overall China-US relations so that steady progress can be made, especially in economic relations and trade, which bring tangible benefits to both sides.