With America distracted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the ICBM on the Korean Peninsula is not getting much attention. But the problem won’t go away without judicious action on both sides.

Any resolution of the nuclear issue must start with the recognition of the DPRK’s deep concerns. While the six-party talks have not yet resumed and risks remain, China will remain critical to the future outcome.

President says a third summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ‘could happen’.

To his credit, President Trump was willing to help break the Korean deadlock. But the recent summit was a beginning, not the end. Washington needs to build a relationship with the Kim government, and that process will be smoother if the U.S. also improves its ties with Beijing.

Ahead of the Trump-Kim summit, there is disagreement between the two parties on how denuclearization should be carried out — in progressive phases, or in a complete and irreversible dismantling of the program. The Center for International Security and Cooperation released a proposal for a three-phase “roadmap” to denuclearization, advocating for a risk management approach to the denuclearization process.

As the more powerful of the two countries, it falls to the US to compromise so the summit can be a success.

If the summit with South Korean President Moon opened the door to a denuclearized North Korea, it will be up to President Trump to close the deal on denuclearization. The Panmunjom Declaration is intentionally ambiguous in some regards and any agreement reached at the Trump-Kim summit will be about top down aspirations, rather than a detailed agreement. However, if the summit is successful, there are certain elements we should look for in any agreement, as Troy Stangarone describes.

Richard Heydarian, recently returned from a trip to North Korea, argues that the Kim regime has returned to the negotiating table out of a fortuitous combination of greater confidence, mastery of the nuclear cycle, and vulnerability, as sanctions begin to undermine the economic viability of the country.

Kim Jong Un’s clear indication to denuclearize and his recent visit to China will bring spring to the peninsula.

There are many uncertainties and moving parts, but one thing is certain: Kim’s short trip to China has shaken up the strategic dynamics of East Asia.