Europe’s fear, exacerbated by heavy dependence on Russia for energy, has been exposed more clearly by the conflict. Along with other factors, the fear is likely to result in a stricter and more selective EU approach to China.

The continuing attacks on Ukraine should be a point where global leaders should be able to align on creating a solution - but outside of a vacuum, tense relations and posturing are getting in the way.

The Russia-Ukraine War is driving global change in both the economic and security domains. China and the United States will face a different world than existed before the Russian military operation that began on February 24.

Russia’s deep integration in the global energy market is the result of a long and complex interaction of many actors in the value chain. Therefore, so-called moral clarity will require precise, case-by-case analysis of real-world facts. The outcome remains to be seen.

The international credibility of the United States has been thrown into question. Failure to deliver on promises and various signs of weakness will diminish trust in the U.S. by its allies, thus dampening its appeal and leadership.

No matter how things go on the battlefield, Russia seems to have lost politically, economically and diplomatically. While the strategic center of gravity has shifted, Russia remains obsessed with territorial expansion and control of natural resources.

The Ukraine war has put China in a bind. As a friend of both Russia and Ukraine, China has no desire to pick a side. On the contrary, conventional Chinese wisdom dictates that, when two friends fight each other, the primary objective must be to end the conflict through mediation. While China’s balanced stance has aroused more than a little suspicion, it could end up hastening the end of the war – and easing tensions with the United States.

China has remained relatively quiet on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to the annoyance of the West. There may be several explanations for Beijing’s aloofness.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been costly, and Russia has reportedly requested assistance from China. The U.S. and its Western allies have also opened dialogue with Chinese officials, and Beijing now faces a fork in the road and whichever route it chooses will define international relations for a long time to come.

China may be on the rocks as it attempts to sort through its options and navigate the challenge that Russia’s invasion/war with Ukraine has created for them.