The dominant narrative on the Chinese side is that this strategic competition between the two countries reflects the struggles for power, institutions, and perceptions, which will last throughout the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. In general, it is thus believed that competition and struggle have been adopted as key words for both Washington and Beijing in managing their relations.

Up till now, the fighting has been going on for over 100 days, with the two warring sides still in an offensive and defensive stalemate. Questions about this ongoing crisis can be listed in a long line, most of which no one can answer at this time. Yet among all the uncertainties, one thing is certain: what the Russian troops crossed on February 24 was not simply the land border between Russia and Ukraine, but rather more symbolically, the River Rubicon of the post-cold war international order.

Alienating Russia will not increase stability for Europe, nor will Russia disappear as a result of the Ukraine war. But Russia’s old power model — needlessly using force to punish countries for switching sides — needs to change.

Besides tackling COVID-19 and climate change, a unifying force within the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is undoubtedly the member countries’ response to China. As the May Quad summit is underway, analysts must assess both how the Quad will react to China as well as how China will respond to the Quad alliance.

Views differ on what triggered the current conflict. But whatever the pros and cons of NATO expansion, the conclusion must be that China, not Russia, is the greater long-term, structural and potentially lethal challenger to America.

Differences over the rules for world affairs will not be resolved easily and won’t be resolved in favor the U.S. Countries are interdependent, and a divided world serves no one’s best interests.

The Ukraine crisis has demolished many boundaries. It was out of control from the beginning, since Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. are all unwilling or unable to compromise. Time will tell, though it may not indicate which side to take.

Europe’s fear, exacerbated by heavy dependence on Russia for energy, has been exposed more clearly by the conflict. Along with other factors, the fear is likely to result in a stricter and more selective EU approach to China.

The continuing attacks on Ukraine should be a point where global leaders should be able to align on creating a solution - but outside of a vacuum, tense relations and posturing are getting in the way.

The Russia-Ukraine War is driving global change in both the economic and security domains. China and the United States will face a different world than existed before the Russian military operation that began on February 24.