Extended deterrence by the U.S. and ROK, as well as the framing of security as a regional issue requiring alliances, illustrates the spread of NATO-style security thinking. From China’s perspective, this will result in a further imbalance in the region’s security order and requires resolute opposition.

We live in a world where geopolitical stability relies largely on deterrence. But how can we prove that deterrence works?

European interests, in France’s view, will be ignored under the U.S. grand strategy to preserve its hegemony, and so Europe should avoid becoming a U.S. pawn. But this idea has yet to find wide sympathy in Europe, which looks to the United States for its security.

Success or failure is closely linked to China’s ability to influence its own neighborhood, as America’s real purpose is the creation of a NATO-style regional alliance. For the U.S., much depends on whether it can accommodate the concerns of countries that don’t want to take sides.

The Butterfly Effect has taken flight. China’s diplomatic accomplishment in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, with Ukraine’s future caught in its wake. The unexpected nature of this historic move means that its ramifications are rapidly gaining momentum and could unleash a tidal wave of global proportions, particularly in Europe.

Interstate political relations are changing the dynamics of the international system. China’s relationship with Russia has become a tool for balancing the shifting pres-sures. But no country can predict the consequences of war. Staying out of it may be the best way to maximize gains.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is forcing people to rethink the role of today’s international system in maintaining world peace. The system is currently out of balance, with one superpower and several other significant powers jostling for prominence.

The United States is the biggest winner in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It’s using it to beef up and modernize its own military and economy. Everyone else has lost. No end is in sight, but one thing is certain: The longer the conflict lasts, the more the U.S. benefits.

The shift has been limited so far, so China need not overreact. It should closely monitor where NATO is heading, however. The best way to deal with it is to run its own affairs well and buttress its ability to rise above external shocks and challenges.

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s head, visited South Korea and Japan recently on a proselyting mission to spread the concept of military deterrence. But China and others have adopted more benign security concept. The region cannot afford to repeat the mistake of replacing dialogue with a show of force.