Tensions between China and the West are being reinforced as assumptions about economic cooperation give way to national security rhetoric. Broad decoupling would be too difficult and costly for the West, while selectively reducing dependence on China in critical areas is seen as a more achievable goal.

President Joe Biden has expressed optimism about the U.S.-China relationship. But regardless of whether his positive outlook is warranted, disengagement is “not the way out.” Washington and Beijing must find a new way to get along.

Extended deterrence by the U.S. and ROK, as well as the framing of security as a regional issue requiring alliances, illustrates the spread of NATO-style security thinking. From China’s perspective, this will result in a further imbalance in the region’s security order and requires resolute opposition.

We live in a world where geopolitical stability relies largely on deterrence. But how can we prove that deterrence works?

European interests, in France’s view, will be ignored under the U.S. grand strategy to preserve its hegemony, and so Europe should avoid becoming a U.S. pawn. But this idea has yet to find wide sympathy in Europe, which looks to the United States for its security.

Success or failure is closely linked to China’s ability to influence its own neighborhood, as America’s real purpose is the creation of a NATO-style regional alliance. For the U.S., much depends on whether it can accommodate the concerns of countries that don’t want to take sides.

The Butterfly Effect has taken flight. China’s diplomatic accomplishment in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, with Ukraine’s future caught in its wake. The unexpected nature of this historic move means that its ramifications are rapidly gaining momentum and could unleash a tidal wave of global proportions, particularly in Europe.

Interstate political relations are changing the dynamics of the international system. China’s relationship with Russia has become a tool for balancing the shifting pres-sures. But no country can predict the consequences of war. Staying out of it may be the best way to maximize gains.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is forcing people to rethink the role of today’s international system in maintaining world peace. The system is currently out of balance, with one superpower and several other significant powers jostling for prominence.