With America distracted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the ICBM on the Korean Peninsula is not getting much attention. But the problem won’t go away without judicious action on both sides.

With the United States maintaining a hostile stance, the DPRK faces a bleak choice: either capitulate to U.S. nuclear and missile demands or try to unnerve the U.S. with a show of force. It is likely to try the latter first.

China and the United States should cooperate to remove the fundamental causes of failure — lack of trust, differing definitions of denuclearization, timetables and peace mechanisms — while accounting for the DPRK’s wariness of the so-called Libya model.

A fundamental shift in thinking is needed under which inspections become an interactive, two-way process. The accusatory hunt for a presumed cheater that has been used in the past needs to change. What's needed is a process that builds trust and provides incentives for cooperation.

The termination of the U.S.-South Korea’s Revised Missile Guidelines signals a new phase in two countries’ relations, further complicating China’s role on the Korean Peninsula.

Although bilateral relations face many difficulties this year, it’s possible — so long as the DPRK and the ROK understand and respect each other — to seize strategic opportunities for a new phase of reconciliation and cooperation. In that case, the re-emergence of the Peninsula Spring may be expected.

The country unveiled its economic approach at the Eighth National Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea. It faces serious obstacles, starting with its emphasis on self-reliance and an inefficient planned economy.

The nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula will not be resolved easily, but there’s reason to hope that a resolution can be nursed into reality. China, Russia, and the Republic of Korea should actively promote the resumption of dialogue and not allow the matter to drift.

Any resolution of the nuclear issue must start with the recognition of the DPRK’s deep concerns. While the six-party talks have not yet resumed and risks remain, China will remain critical to the future outcome.

One cost of the deteriorating Sino-American relationship is that it encourages North Korean intransigence regarding the inter-Korean peace process. If the U.S. and China want to avoid a repeat of the Korean War, it is up to both great powers to pursue policies which incentivize North Korean compliance.