Up till now, the fighting has been going on for over 100 days, with the two warring sides still in an offensive and defensive stalemate. Questions about this ongoing crisis can be listed in a long line, most of which no one can answer at this time. Yet among all the uncertainties, one thing is certain: what the Russian troops crossed on February 24 was not simply the land border between Russia and Ukraine, but rather more symbolically, the River Rubicon of the post-cold war international order.

Alienating Russia will not increase stability for Europe, nor will Russia disappear as a result of the Ukraine war. But Russia’s old power model — needlessly using force to punish countries for switching sides — needs to change.

What should be China’s view? It should avoid competition for its own sake and avoid rhetorical pitfalls. It should also consider historical context and the needs of humanity as a whole. Competition should be managed, not malicious.

China and Russia may be forced to seek a new systemic equilibrium, with the result being two international camps. This could lead to a new cold war and subject other nations to unpredictable security costs.

The postwar foundation laid by the United States has been shaken, and the Western model is in trouble as never before. The primary creator of the liberal international order has unwittingly sabotaged itself.

Speeches by Xi Jinping and Joe Biden laid out their understanding of the international political order from the perspective of their own national history. Developed nations in the West may identify with the U.S. vision, while developing nations may find the Chinese vision more attractive.

“There is only one system in the world, and that is the international system with the United Nations at its core,” President Xi Jinping said. “There is only one order, and that is the international order based on international law.”

The Group of Seven (G7) Leadership Summit held last June was stated to be an occasion for the Western leaders to “reestablish” the international order after the COVID-19 pandemic. It was also for the U.S. to demonstrate its return “back at the table”.

Running parallel to the global battle against the coronavirus pandemic is a tug of war between two competing narratives about how the world ought to be governed

China should modestly integrate itself with the existing order.