The world economy has clearly caught a cold. The outbreak of COVID-19 came at a particularly vulnerable point in the global business cycle. World output expanded by just 2.9% in 2019 – the slowest pace since the 2008-09 global financial crisis and just 0.4 percentage points above the 2.5% threshold typically associated with global recession.

In addition to the devastating human toll of the coronavirus outbreak, the economic damage of a manufacturing shutdown in China is likely to be profound.

The coronavirus outbreak that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan has spread across the country and beyond its borders, leaving governments at all levels in China scrambling to limit further person-to-person transmission of the virus, now known as COVID-19.

Low interest rates – both nominal and real – have been a persistent feature of advanced economies since the 1980s. How long, many now wonder, can the trend last?

At the start of a new decade, it’s useful to review the state of the world and the forces that will shape the future. Though success won’t come easily, China is set to emerge as one of the greatest forces for good in history.

The Trump administration has demonstrated a lack of a respect for international trade law throughout the US-China trade dispute. Now, organizations like the WTO will suffer at the hand of Trump’s prioritization of his ‘America First’ policies.

A large-scale U.S. decoupling from China cannot succeed because the global landscape of trade is complex and unable to respond to sudden shock. Relations are destined to get better, despite temporary setbacks.

A recent report by Mackenzie said that the country’s dependence on the world has shrunk, even as the world’s dependence on Chinese production and exports has continued to rise.

Its new ideas and approaches are broadly beneficial and have already involved many countries, even as the United States and others have tried to impede progress for selfish reasons.

On October 1, the People’s Republic of China celebrated the 70th anniversary of its founding with impressive military and civilian parades meant to showcase the extraordinary progress the country has made under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Formidable challenges lie ahead. But China’s record so far, and the resources it has at its disposal, indicate that it may well be up to the task.