Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte has sent mixed signals about how he will pursue his country’s South China Sea arbitration award against China in 2016, and his recent rhetoric promising to take a tougher stance on China may not come to fruition.

The negative consequences of U.S. involvement with Mekong countries are real but limited. The U.S. has the potential to continue to fuel tension over issues such as water resources in the region.

The normalization of U.S. Coast Guard presence in the South China Sea is likely to lead to greater competition and interference. Far from keeping the peace, U.S. intrusions into the region are deliberate exercises of power that aim to assert control.

In a trade war between two of the world’s largest economies, there are no winners. The U.S.-China trade spat will have spillover effects, with severe consequences for not only Asia, but the rest of the world.

The US-China rivalry constitutes a new formidable challenge to Southeast Asia’s cohesion, so they should continue to engage all powers and reinforce consensus among themselves.

In the Shangri-La Summit, the Trump administration introduced a new, muscular Indo-Pacific strategy, which is fueled by private interests and foreign governments - not the interests of the US, China or emerging Asia.

While unable to alter Duterte’s diplomatic strategy towards China, the influential and largely autonomous Philippine defense establishment is conducting a parallel China policy of its own. The result is a dualistic foreign policy, combining both engagement and deterrence.

In the contested South China Sea, there are increasing concerns about public agendas fueled by private interests. The structures of Albert del Rosario's think-tank and its many bedfellows are a case in point.

As it wrestles with Brexit, Britain is recommitting itself militarily to the Asia-Pacific, where it once had numerous colonies and today has key trading partners. But the UK’s naval actions, part of an effort to assert itself as “Global Britain,” may serve to rankle China and the broader region.