There is no single future until it happens, and any effort to envision geopolitics in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic must include a range of possible futures. I suggest five plausible futures in 2030, but obviously others can be imagined.

For now and the foreseeable future, gaming will be intensified, making compromise difficult. It will likely remain peaceful and manageable on the whole, but uncertainties are growing.

Already hotly contested, the South China Sea is seeing an uptick in movement since certain European powers have gotten involved. It remains to be seen how far Europe is willing to go in shaping the maritime disputes along its preferences and provisions of international law.

The integrated bloc means an improved strategic environment to China’s south. Among other things, war has been eliminated and two-way economic ties have become closer. As a result, ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner, eclipsing the European Union.

A series of moves by the United States and the words of its high-ranking officials all point in the same direction: The U.S. is doing its utmost to contain China across the board for the 21st century.

Over a century ago, World War I showed the world how crowded alliances and geopolitical tension could ignite into all-out war. Now in the 21st Century, posturing on both sides of the Pacific mirror the mistakes made by yesterday’s empires.

The important waterway could be the first tile to fall in a Sino-U.S. conflict. In openly ramping up an interventionist policy and increasing its pressure on China, the United States is increasing the risk of a military confrontation.

As a new global power center, it doesn’t need to be part of the master-slave relationship of the United States and its allies. For now, India should be vigilant, act cautiously and wait for new forces to emerge in Washington.

Since the 1970s, the US has tread a fine line of pursuing neutrality on claims to the South China Sea. The Trump administration, however, looks set to upend that policy.

In a word, no. China has never recognized the arbitration under the UNCLOS treaty as valid. Meanwhile, the United States continues to poison relations by opposing everything China does.