China’s transformation into a knowledge-based economy occupying a central position in the global value chain will ultimately yield a “reform dividend.” But as exciting as that transformation will be, it will also be dangerous. Never before has an economy so large undergone such far-reaching change so quickly

After decelerating for six consecutive years, China real GDP growth appears to be inching up in 2017. The 6.9% annualized increase just reported for the second quarter exceeds the 6.7% rise in 2016 and is well above the consensus of international forecasters who, just a few months ago, expected growth to be closer to 6.5% this year, and to slow further, to 6%, in 2018.

In an ideal world, China’s government could respond by stimulating household consumption. But, in the absence of further reforms in areas like social security, growth in consumer spending is bound to be slow.

Despite all the predictions of doom by Western pundits in 1997, Hong Kong has done well since its reversion of sovereignty to China twenty years ago. 

Moody's Investors Service recently downgraded China's sovereign credit rating, the first time since 1989, changing at the same time its outlook for the Chinese

Weak demand is dragging down China’s economic growth. While necessary to mitigate financial risk, will not resolve China’s monetary conundrum, much less protect China’s economy from the consequences of a financial crisis in the long run.

Despite China’s struggle to identify new drivers of growth, there are many positive indicators in the economy right now. We should be more result-focused and open-minded about China’s economic pursuit, and be willing to see the positive side while weighing the country’s economic future.

China is increasingly portrayed as the next disaster in a crisis-prone world. Stephen S. Roach disagrees, recognizing his minority opinion. Roach argues that without China, the world economy would already be in recession, citing the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook.

China’s economy did not get out of the difficulty of downward pressure and was mainly fueled by real estate and price increases in the first half of the year. If China’s central bank tightens its monetary policy to some extent, the real estate market may start a periodic adjustment to be more sustainable, but the growth picture will be less rosy for the second half of 2016.

China’s economy grew 6.7 per cent in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous three-month period, as a buoyant property market and government stimulus boosted demand for factory output.