A worsening relationship is probably unavoidable if the two countries adhere to their current domestic choices. If they want better ties, both need to make adjustments, but that seems unlikely.

Weakening political will on the part of the United States and others is undermining the global commons necessary for good global governance. That’s where China comes in.

Cutting ties would undoubtedly hurt both countries. But when wishful policies collide with the iron laws of economics, the latter are certain to prevail.

The more China and the US are coupled, the more insecure they feel. Some sort of split seems inevitable.

Some wrestling may be needed before they can seriously look at decoupling.

As U.S. policy has grown increasingly aggressive, China’s posture has shifted, with long-term effects.