The Volt Typhoon cyberattacks underscore the escalating tensions between China and the U.S. in cyberspace, with both nations deepening mutual distrust that risks spiraling into broader conflict. To prevent further deterioration, the U.S. and China must engage in dialogue, establish international cybersecurity frameworks, and cooperate on managing cyber threats, ensuring that neither side becomes the winner of a destructive cyber or AI-driven war.

The wide divergences in Chinese and U.S. preferences regarding artificial intelligence suggest NGO-led engagements will yield greater security benefits than official meetings.

FBI Director Christopher Wray recently upped the ante in America’s anti-China campaign. In congressional testimony on January 31, he sounded the alarm over intensified Chinese hacking activity and warned that US infrastructure – telecommunications, energy, transportation, and water – is acutely vulnerable to the Chinese state-sponsored hacker group Volt Typhoon. Front-page coverage by the New York Times added to the sense of urgency.

For China and the United States, virtually all technology eventually touches on cybersecurity. But cooperation, based on trust, can be achieved. Trust is the basis of any cooperative relationship. Without it, concrete initiatives are incredibly difficult to implement.

The recent US cyber-attack on Iran, in retaliation for the downing of its drone, raises new questions for the militarization of cyberspace: what are the norms governing cyber war? What are the implications for international cooperation on the global Internet? How can governments stop cyber-attacks from escalating in unpredictable ways? These matters greatly concern the US and China.

The case involving Meng Wanzhou’s extradition to the U.S. illustrates the precariousness that U.S. allies must face when balancing their relations with the U.S. and China.

Deterrence will not be enough.

Doing so means a bigger defense budget.

The US must demonstrate that cyber attacks and manipulation of social media will incur costs.