The U.S. and China’s growing rivalry was bound to affect global relationships on multiple levels. Already having established the AUKUS program, the U.S. is also pursuing an adjacent Japan-Philippine-U.S. alliance which will add another security barrier in the Pacific, a difficult fence to raise in a region where many countries rely heavily on China for trade.

Japan seeks to further develop its partnerships with ASEAN countries and neighboring states to reassess its place globally amidst tensions between the U.S. and China.

A approach to regional security that’s heavily based on deterrence will only lead to more insecure outcomes. Military strength is an important component, but it should not be pursued to the virtual exclusion of diplomacy. Regional consensus is essential.

China and Japan have deepened their economic interdependence, but they have a long way to go in building political trust, especially in the security realm. The two countries should get beyond the old concept that starts with military deterrence. It is no longer productive.

Generally speaking, the China-U.S.-Japan trilateral relationship is in a state of turbulence and serious imbalance. The Russia-Ukraine war and the latest Taiwan crisis have further eroded stability. Here is what’s needed now.

The two allies will feel the urge to escalate their positions on Taiwan as a way of testing each other’s loyalty. But intervention in the Taiwan Strait will leave the island in a state of strategic stagnation and will cause unnecessary regional turmoil.

The unfortunate Japanese experience in boosting domestic demand and setting trade policy can be drawn upon today. Hopefully, China will not repeat the mistakes of Japan. Frictions between China and the United States can be addressed if they are willing to meet each other halfway.

Japan’s strong ties to the West have benefited its economy and global standing in the Pacific Rim for the better part of a century. Now, as China gains power and grows bolder, Japan’s next moves will test the stability of China-Japan relations.

Japan’s balancing act has gotten increasingly more challenging over the years. Tasked with trying to placate both China, its powerful neighbor, and the United States, its long-time ally and protector, Tokyo’s delicate balancing act is becoming ever more difficult to sustain.

The China-Japan relationship is like a ship forging ahead against the wind. But it’s also drifting in the current and will move backward if it fails to move ahead. Their ties in the new era need to be constantly enriched and exercised.