Some believe the U.S. has the ability to take on a two-ocean strategy — the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific — but China-Russia issues loom large. They will guide the approach to China by the West.

The crisis in Ukraine grows worse as fighting rages on in what is sure to be one of this decade’s defining episodes. Whatever the outcome is, the result will drastically shift the landscape of the international community.

Talks between Russia and Ukraine regarding a cease-fire are a first step. However, to resolve the deep-rooted differences and bring about long-term peace and stability in Europe and Russia, talks between Russia and NATO countries must follow.

China’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine has been heavily scrutinized and criticized. While Chinese officials have expressed concern about civilian casualties, they have declined to condemn the attack, which they regard as a response to NATO expansion, and they have declared that they will not join the West in imposing financial sanctions on Russia. Yet China has hardly given full-throated support to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The question is whether this relatively neutral stance by China could prove crucial to preventing further dangerous military escalation.

With war raging in Ukraine, China’s annual “Two Sessions” convey an image of a country in denial. As the Communist Party and its advisory body gather in Beijing this month, there has been little or no mention of a seismic disruption in the world order – an omission that is all the more glaring in view of China’s deep-rooted sense of its unique place in history. With its unabashed great power aspirations, modern China may well be at a decisive juncture.

History’s turning points are rarely evident with great clarity. But the February 4 joint statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping as the Winter Olympics opened in Beijing may be an exception – signaling a new turning point in a new Cold War.

The Russia-Ukraine war was not warranted. Ukrainians despair for peace. Russia needs security. China offers development. But the U.S., NATO and the far-right Ukrainian paramilitaries seek something very different.

As the world watches the conflict in Ukraine unfold, observers have quickly drawn up comparisons to China in relation to security and expansionist ideals. A careful examination of the decades leading up to the current fiasco is needed to show the truth of how we arrived where we are today.

The strategic benefit for China and Russia to maintain good relations has never been more apparent. A successful Sino-Russian foreign policy push in Ukraine and Taiwan would certainly shock the U.S. and Europe.

China and Russia may be forced to seek a new systemic equilibrium, with the result being two international camps. This could lead to a new cold war and subject other nations to unpredictable security costs.