China’s relationship with Russia puts its relationship at risk with the West, and is perhaps the most significant challenge in China-U.S. relations.

Two years ago, I outlined eight lessons from the Ukraine War. And though I warned that it was too early to be confident about any predictions, they have held up

China and Russia have grown closer, but not just because they want to support one another in the face of Western pressure. Their relations have a long-standing momentum of their own. Guided by their heads of state, the comprehensive strategic partnership will only grow stronger.

The international system seems unable to curb hegemonism and Cold War thinking, but China-Russia strategic coordination can mark a new path. As the two nations achieve win-win cooperation through the “five always” standard, the fundamental interests of the Chinese people will be served in the process.

China and Russia’s maligned relationship looks on the surface to be a new axis of power against the U.S. - but by playing it safe, China seeks to reap the benefits of Russia’s favor without offending the West.

At the recent international security gathering, China made clear that it opposes military hegemony — where a superpower seeks to settle disputes by force. China, by contrast is working to bring the international community together to shape a new order that is more just and reasonable.

The friendship between Russia and China may seem ideological on the surface, but it could significantly benefit the PRC in the event of more supply chain difficulties, or a military conflict with the United States. And though Xi Jinping is focused on self-sufficiency and dual circulation plans domestically, he still knows that China will always need to import certain goods and materials to operate its economy - and Russia and its controlled territories could supply those essential resources.

China has upped its international statesmanship, making waves by playing the middleman to a historic Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement. Working with other countries like India and Turkey, Beijing’s economic and diplomatic leverage can be a factor in bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table.

The Butterfly Effect has taken flight. China’s diplomatic accomplishment in reconciling Saudi Arabia and Iran could have far-reaching consequences, with Ukraine’s future caught in its wake. The unexpected nature of this historic move means that its ramifications are rapidly gaining momentum and could unleash a tidal wave of global proportions, particularly in Europe.

The Xi-Putin summit seems to have had little immediate impact on China-Russia relations, the war on Ukraine, on other major global issues. But the context of the meeting underscores the durability of the Beijing-Moscow alignment.