China hopes to get relations with the Philippines back on track, President Xi Jinping has told new Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, after ties were affecte

Duterte’s strong performance at the polls seems to demonstrate Filipinos’ approval of a new approach to the South China Sea problem by holding bilateral talks with China and the U.S. But if these talks fail to benefit of the Filipino people, particularly on Filipino fishermen who are greatly affected by sea disputes, Duterte may use the arbitration decision as a second option.

Despite western press fearing the next Philippine president as a “strongman,” President Duterte won the majority of votes from an election with a record 82 percent turnout. For the first time, Philippines is poised to have its first president who is a self-declared socialist, and who wants to hedge bets between U.S. security assurance and Chinese economic cooperation.

While Duterte seriously values the Philippines’ long-standing security alliance with the U.S., he seems to be more enthusiastic in repairing the Philippines’ damaged political ties with China. Rommel Banlaoi warns, however, that excessive accommodation of China could potentially undermine the Philippines’ long standing alliance with the United States.

In the past six years, Washington and Manila have been cementing a military alliance, which is reassuring to many Filipinos but leaves some apprehensive – including the leading presidential contenders. Dr. Steinbcok poses that true hedging would seek security benefits from the U.S. defense umbrella; economic returns from trade and investment with China; and political advantages from cooperation with both nations.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III compares China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative with the U.S.'s Rebalance to Asia, ultimately advising that for the U.S. to be seen as not reacting to China's growing regional influence, it would need a better appreciation of the security needs, growing aspirations, and economic demands of rising powers.

As China’s permanent neighbor and the U.S.’ long-time ally, the Philippines has a unique role mediating between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea. However, if the Philippines fail’s to improve its current political relations with China, while continuously enhancing its defense alliance with the U.S., the Philippines can become a catalyst for the proverbial “Thucydides trap.”

Abandoning its past agreements with China and dismissing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea to settle maritime disputes through negotiations and consultation, the Philippines has chosen to take the issue to court. The author argues that the arbitral tribunal acted like the Philippines’ agent and the high-stake case could upset the delicate security balance in the region.

Despite some negative social costs, most Philippine presidential candidates welcome American presence in the country because it provides deterrence from China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea. But China is very wary of EDCA and the subsequent increase of U.S. military presence in the Philippines because of Beijing’s long-standing fear of American containment.

China's failure to appear in court demonstrates its continued position of "non-acceptance and non-participation" in the arbitration unilaterally initiated by the Philippines. This arbitration could set a precedent that undermines the true spirit of the dispute settlement mechanism of UNCLOS.