Trump’s actions in dealing with Russia and Ukraine and conflict in Gaza have been disruptive and unpredictable. With more holistic foreign policy statements still in the works, only speculation can tell us where Trump might head regarding the Indo-Pacific.

The more things change, the more they seem to stay the same.

The Trump administration's clash with Ukraine has raised doubts about America's strategic reliability, prompting concerns among European and Asian allies about a potential shift in global order under a second Trump presidency.

Trump’s Oval Office ambush of Ukrainian President Zelensky highlights the unpredictability and volatility of U.S. diplomacy under his second term—an unsettling prospect for China as it prepares for a potential Trump-Xi summit. With Trump emboldened and increasingly unpredictable, China may face new challenges in navigating an engagement with a leader who thrives on disruption.

The future for European countries hinges on maintaining competitiveness and growth while safeguarding the quality of life of their citizens. The shock delivered by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin could hasten Europe’s long-overdue strategic awakening.

The Asia-Pacific region began to exhibit signs of easing major geopolitical tensions in late 2024, but has started to heat up again following President Trump’s return to power in the White House. During the ‘easing’ period, although low-level disputes persisted in the vast region, in the South China Sea, and in cross-strait relations, the risk of a conflict involving regional heavyweights was not imminent.

If one takes Marco Rubio’s recent remarks on the end of unipolarity at face value, one could be mistaken for believing that the question of a multipolar world is settled. On the contrary, Rubio’s ruminations, together with remarks from members of the new Trump Administration, including the President himself, buttressed with decisions made in the first few weeks of the new administration, suggest that the issue of multipolarity is very much in question.

The future is uncertain for the European Union as powerful regimes with inward-looking agendas have begun rolling out policy in the U.S., Germany, and France, due in no small part to the second Trump administration. For Europe, NATO, and the conflict in Ukraine, this could potentially lead to unprecedented changes in the modern global order.

U.S. allies in the long run are expected to pursue greater strategic autonomy, which means defining their national interests outside of American influence. Their policies toward China are therefore likely to continue evolving in a pragmatic and nuanced direction.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House puts the Indo-Pacific at the center of U.S. foreign policy, but restoring American dominance won’t be easy. While his first term laid the groundwork for a strategic shift, China’s expanding economic and military influence has only grown stronger. To compete, Trump must recalibrate U.S. engagement—strengthening military alliances, reviving economic initiatives, and leveraging technological advantages—before Beijing cements its leadership in the region.