America is holding ASEAN countries back from a central role in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, but their self-confidence is growing. It’s not lost on anyone that Southeast Asia’s strategic position has not changed in the minds of U.S. decision-makers. Meanwhile, China offers welcome alternatives.

The compromise reached by U.S. Congress on the military spending bill, allowing the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia as part of AUKUS, signals a significant shift in defense dynamics in the Asia-Pacific. While intended to bolster regional security, the pact faces criticism both within Australia and among neighboring nations, raising concerns about arms races and the sidelining of economic cooperation in the region.

Southeast Asia’s geographic location and burgeoning economy puts them in the center of strategic plans by neighboring China, and rivalling U.S.-interests. The path forward for the region’s states will demand acute political maneuvering.

Renewed talks between the U.S. and China have led to a flurry of speculation on what the near future holds, but perhaps no one is watching as closely as China’s neighbors who would prefer de-escalated tensions sooner than later, especially if it means avoiding crossfire between the two rivals.

Geopolitical tensions unleashed by the war in Ukraine continue to influence Sino-American relations and the reshaping of state relationships in Southeast Asia.

The IPEF - a U.S.-initiated trade and development partnership - is poised to bring in enthusiastic participation from several nations in the Asia-Pacific region. Notably, Southeast Asian states are well represented among members, giving the U.S. considerable influence right in China’s backyard.

India is stepping up to seek out stronger relationships with Southeast Asian countries, showing that China is not the only nation in the Pacific region that can provide boons and benefits to friendly partners.

“The U.S. once held the Philippines as a colonial possession, but now finds itself having to win back the Southeast Asian nation’s good graces to counter a rising China.”

Parallels between the U.S. withdrawal in Afghanistan and its previous defeat in Vietnam have been top of mind for many, nowhere more so than in Southeast Asia itself, where American intervention and the ensuing fallout is still being reckoned with today.

An abundance of examples show that countries in Southeast Asia want to develop beneficial relationships with both the U.S. and China. Thus, the U.S. hedge against China in the region is doomed to fail, despite the best efforts of visiting American officials.