Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow, Yale University
Mar 31, 2025
The world’s major growth engines are about to run in reverse. The policies and uncertainties of US President Donald Trump’s second administration have hit a sluggish global economy with a transformational exogenous shock. Risks are especially worrisome in both the United States and China, which have collectively accounted for a little more than 40% of cumulative global GDP growth since 2010.
He Weiwen, Senior Fellow, Center for China and Globalization, CCG
Mar 31, 2025
Global GDP is likely to shrink again in Q2. Inflation will rise, and real pain will start to set in. Key industries will be disrupted, dragging down production and consumption. The United States may miss its growth target for 2025, and as a new cross-Atlantic trade war looms, growth may slow in the eurozone as well.
Zhou Xiaoming, Former Deputy Permanent Representative of China’s Mission to the UN Office in Geneva
Mar 31, 2025
A great many negative consequences would follow a successful effort by the United States to pull the MFN rug out from under the world’s second-largest economy. If this key pillar of global trade is taken away, the collapse of the WTO itself could follow.
Zhang Monan, Deputy Director of Institute of American and European Studies, CCIEE
Mar 20, 2025
The introduction of reciprocal tariffs represents a pivotal shift in U.S. trade policy. The move from multilateral trade engagements to bilateral or regional agreements is a strategic effort to redefine international trade and ultimately give the United States an advantage.
Dan Steinbock, Founder, Difference Group
Feb 21, 2025
At the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, investor Warren Buffett warned of derivatives as weapons of financial mass destruction. President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" could have a similar impact on world trade.
Carla Norrlöf, Professor of Political Science at University of Toronto, non-resident senior fellow at Atlantic Council
Feb 13, 2025
In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, US President Donald Trump has imposed an across-the-board 10% tariff on goods from China, threatened a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and vowed similar measures against the European Union. His stated objective is to secure deals to halt the flow of drugs and unauthorized immigration into the United States, suggesting that tariffs will now be an instrument of border security. But trade barriers on this scale could destabilize global markets, drive up prices for American consumers, and potentially drag the US – and the world – into recession. In betting that the potential economic fallout is worth the gains in border security, Trump is gambling with America’s long-term influence and prosperity.
Zhou Xiaoming, Former Deputy Permanent Representative of China’s Mission to the UN Office in Geneva
Sep 11, 2024
The multilateral trading system faces an existential challenge as Washington and Brussels look to continue, or even boost, protectionism. With the very survival of the WTO at stake, the world should stand up to the challenge.
Zhou Xiaoming, Former Deputy Permanent Representative of China’s Mission to the UN Office in Geneva
Aug 23, 2024
The multilateral trading system faces an existential challenge as the United States and European Union seek to continue — or even expand — trade protectionism. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, there are good reasons to believe that he will try again to hijack the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, protectionism by Europe only makes things worse.
Yang Yao, Professor, China Center for Economic Research and the National School of Development at Peking University
Jul 04, 2024
After an eight-month investigation, the European Union has announced that it will impose tariffs as high as 38.1% on electric vehicles (EVs) from China to offset the unfair advantages created by Chinese government subsidies. In retaliation, China immediately launched an anti-dumping probe into pork imports from the EU. The two sides are now negotiating a solution to the trade dispute in Beijing.
Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow, Yale University
May 30, 2024
The United States does not have a coherent trade policy. It has a political strategy masquerading as trade policy that has taken dead aim at China. Unsurprisingly, China has responded in kind. With the two superpowers drawing on their allies for support – the US leaning on the G7 and China turning to the Global South – economic decoupling is the least of our problems.