At the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, investor Warren Buffett warned of derivatives as weapons of financial mass destruction. President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" could have a similar impact on world trade.

It’s impossible to predict the outcome of a random experiment. Yet that is the task that awaits us as we try to make sense of another Donald Trump era.

In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, US President Donald Trump has imposed an across-the-board 10% tariff on goods from China, threatened a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and vowed similar measures against the European Union. His stated objective is to secure deals to halt the flow of drugs and unauthorized immigration into the United States, suggesting that tariffs will now be an instrument of border security. But trade barriers on this scale could destabilize global markets, drive up prices for American consumers, and potentially drag the US – and the world – into recession. In betting that the potential economic fallout is worth the gains in border security, Trump is gambling with America’s long-term influence and prosperity.

In a social media post on January 30, 2025, US President Donald Trump threatened 100% tariffs on BRICs countries unless they committed to “neither create

By trying to weaponize the U.S. tariffs on America's big trade partners against China, President Trump is basing bad economics on worse geopolitics. It could prove a costly prelude to a global downturn.

China and the U.S. should not entangle themselves in trade imbalances and tariffs but find a new, innovative perspective. The future will be shaped by AI, big data, quantum computing and telecom. Both countries have tremendous common interests.

Among the many factors pointing to economic uncertainty, the most significant is the tariff and trade war that Donald Trump has pledged to initiate. At the same time, from a global perspective, the overall macroeconomic situation improved over the past year and could continue in a positive direction.

Trump’s old concept of tariffs originates in U.S. policies from the 19th century. He believes that he excels in the art of creating a “level playing field” to generate jobs at home. But what he is proposing would be the highest tariff level since the Great Depression.

Donald Trump’s trade policies have been characterized by an aggressive use of tariffs, driven by his belief in balancing bilateral trade and prioritizing American production. While these measures have reshaped trade dynamics and escalated protectionism within the U.S., they have also inadvertently strengthened China's global economic position and highlighted the limitations of decoupling efforts.