The multilateral trading system faces an existential challenge as the United States and European Union seek to continue — or even expand — trade protectionism. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, there are good reasons to believe that he will try again to hijack the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, protectionism by Europe only makes things worse.

The implications of recent stock market volatility in the United States, combined with slowing job growth and rising unemployment, are causing a panic and triggering discussions about an inflection point. The signs of a recession are rattling the market’s shared hope for a soft landing.

Only through steadfast multilateral policy coordination and flexible, effective measures can global financial markets weather the storm safely and achieve stability and development.

In recent months, Chinese overcapacity has been a major topic of discussion – and a source of controversy – among economists and policymakers around the world. While these concerns are not entirely off base, they are excessive and resolvable.

Even amid frictions, empirical data show that trade between China and the United States is an objective economic law, based on complementary economies. Political tensions and other restrictions could distort or delay the growth but will be unable to kill it.

In the so-called Third Plenum to be held on July 15-18, China’s senior leadership will have an opportunity to establish the broad outlines of a policy framework that could reshape the country’s course for the next several years. Don’t count on it. There is good reason to think that China watchers in the West have unrealistic expectations of what is to come.

America’s fundamental strategy of creating trading blocs of approved partners will have disastrous global consequences. The Great Depression in the 1930s was brought on, in part, by U.S. protectionism. The world must now guard against a similar calamity.

In this interview, Professor Huang Yiping discusses with James Chau, president of the China-United States Exchange Foundation, the trajectory of China’s economy and the factors that influence it. He also discusses the end of China’s so-called economic miracle and explains why the country is now working to transition to a more normal economic growth model. Will China’s local government debt lead to a systemic financial crisis? Huang elaborates on “three perils.”

Now that the United States has introduced a new set of import tariffs on Chinese goods, the world’s two largest economies appear to be on the brink of open economic warfare – and developing countries are in danger of getting caught in the crossfire. Beyond the risk that they could face sanctions or other trade restrictions if one superpower perceives them to be helping the other, Sino-American trade tensions are eroding the value of many of these economies’ comparative advantages, such as cheap labor and land. Coping with these challenges will require skillful economic statecraft.

The United States does not have a coherent trade policy. It has a political strategy masquerading as trade policy that has taken dead aim at China. Unsurprisingly, China has responded in kind. With the two superpowers drawing on their allies for support – the US leaning on the G7 and China turning to the Global South – economic decoupling is the least of our problems.