The Italian Prime Minister’s visit to China offers key insights into the state of Sino-European relations, the evolution of de-risking strategies, and China’s response to this challenge.

The multilateral trading system faces an existential challenge as the United States and European Union seek to continue — or even expand — trade protectionism. If Donald Trump returns to the White House, there are good reasons to believe that he will try again to hijack the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, protectionism by Europe only makes things worse.

Now that the United States has introduced a new set of import tariffs on Chinese goods, the world’s two largest economies appear to be on the brink of open economic warfare – and developing countries are in danger of getting caught in the crossfire. Beyond the risk that they could face sanctions or other trade restrictions if one superpower perceives them to be helping the other, Sino-American trade tensions are eroding the value of many of these economies’ comparative advantages, such as cheap labor and land. Coping with these challenges will require skillful economic statecraft.

To revitalize innovation and build confidence in the private sector, the two countries should collaborate, from the Middle East to Africa, in unconventional ways. This would not only provide new business scenarios but would also offer an integrated solution for global governance going forward.

The doctrine of “assertive transparency” has dramatically escalated South China Sea tensions. Among other things, it has paved the way to the alignment of the U.S., Japan and Philippines in the impending April summit.

Confrontations over the South China Sea are startling events that bring up the potential for heated conflict, but disagreements in troubled waters have ripple effects that lead to economic problems as well.

The United States seeks to widen the technology gap with China as much as possible and thus will create more barriers for Chinese research and development. It may even try to push back some of the technological advancements China has made. China needs to prepare for greater pressure.

Reflections on Lessons from Davos for US, China, India & Beyond– When the global order seems to be shifting faster than ever, the need for committed partnerships between established and developing powers should be seen as necessary.

India wants to reduce China’s footprint in its industrial chains. China must deal with this by strengthening its own industrial and innovation chains. It must also improve its policy on industrial chain transfers. It should avoid contributing to India’s development at the cost of its own.

The Indo-Pacific aims to contain China's influence but struggles with unclear membership and diverse objectives. By contrast, the economic region of Pacific Asia, centered on China, emphasizes interdependence, but grapples with political uncertainties due to concerns about overreliance on China. The member states of both have agency and will pursue their own interests, but China’s behavior will likely determine which grouping has the greater strategic salience.