The Arbitral Tribunal in the South China Sea arbitration will pass its ruling on July 12 on a case filed by the Philippines against China over a dispute in the South China Sea. Anticipating an unfavorable ruling, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei reiterated on Friday that Beijing will not accept it no matter how much diplomatic pressure is put on it.
The ruling is likely to have a variety of diplomatic implications for Asia-Pacific affairs. The United States, Japan and some ASEAN member states that have maritime disputes with China would like it to accept the ruling, which they believe is the most convenient way of encroaching upon China's sovereignty and maritime interests in the South China Sea.
Beijing has to stay alert to such dangers, for they could deal a major blow to its legal status in the South China Sea, be it in reclamation work or territorial claims. Beijing has to stick to its stance of not acknowledging or accepting, let alone implementing, the arbitral tribunal's ruling, simply because it will be illegal and thus null, and void.
But having made plenty of diplomatic, political and military efforts to hype up the arbitration during the past three years, the US will not sit idle while China tries to safeguard its lawful rights. Such are their differences on the South China Sea issue that many fear they could lead to a military conflict.
But China has no option but to defend its lawful rights. The South China Sea dispute between Beijing and Manila is essentially about territorial claims and maritime delimitation. Thanks to the US' abrupt intervention and the support of its allies, including Japan, Australia and some European countries, the Beijing-Manila dispute is being used as a bargaining chip in a strategic contest between the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region.
