In the first ten years of the century, China took advantage of a favorable international environment and achieved unprecedented economic growth through the country’s modernization efforts. From an economic perspective, China’s accession into the World Trade Organization (WTO) occurred during an increased globalization of the world economy, allowing China’s foreign trade to double every three years. In 2001, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) accounted for 12.8% of US GDP, equal to $1.15 trillion, and ranked sixth in the world. However, in 2011, China’s GDP reached $7.3 trillion, accounting for 48% of US GDP, and ranked second in the world. Given China’s territory, population and economic size, this development was unprecedented in the and quite naturally garnered worldwide attention, including that of the United States.
While a small minority of people in the United States continue to talk about the “coming collapse of China”, the overwhelming majority of Americans have reached a consensus that China’s economic size will catch up to or even surpass that of the United States. The United States has long been the world’s lone super-power, and American people do not know, as former President Richard Nixon once said, “how to be the second, or even first among equals.” American people would feel uncomfortable being the world’s second largest economy, behind China.
Over the past decade, the United States has faced numerous challenges that have constrained the country’s economic growth. The sub-prime debt crisis began in early 2007, and American economists generally expected it over within two years. Unfortunately, in September 2009, it turned into a financial crisis, which throughout the globe. Now, the country is plagued by high sovereign debt, a weak economic recovery, and high unemployment. Whether the United States is declining or not remains a point of debate. Yet, in spite of so many difficulties, the United States remains the strongest country in the world, and will be so for several decades to come.
However, one fact that is beyond controversy is that the gap between the two countries’ strength is narrowing. In fact, American’s sense of being “threatened” has become astute. A public opinion poll conducted by the Pew Research Center has tracked Americans’ changing attitude towards China. In March 2011, 53% Americans surveyed thought that it was more important to build a strong relationship with China compared to 40% that wanted to get tougher on China. Nevertheless, by October 2012, more Americans (49%) supported a tougher attitude towards China than a stronger relationship with China (42%). Thus explaining why in the US election this year both candidates were relying on tough China rhetoric. The controversy this year solely focused on economic and trade relations between the two countries. Political issues, security issues and Taiwan were not mentioned.
While the gap between China and the United States is narrowing, the gap between China and other new economies, such as BRIC nations is widening. India, Russia and Brazil’s GDP is less than 1/3 of China’s GDP respectively, and the financial crisis’ negative impact on their economic development is serious. Given the current environment, the bilateral relationship between China and the United States now more clearly resembles a typical relationship between a rising power and an established power. While there are various schools of thought in the US and China that interpret this relationship differently, most scholars, both in China and the United States, agree that competitiveness has become an important feature of the relationship. To use the word “juncture” is to emphasize the competitiveness and uncertainty of future bilateral relations.
To deal with this new situation in China-US relations, the Chinese side puts forward the notion of building a new type of great power relationship. While this needs innovation and combined efforts from both countries, these efforts should be made in the three following areas: to expand common ground, build mutual respect and implement a crisis management mechanism.
Although competitiveness between China and the US is palpable, cooperation is still at the basis of this bilateral relationship and common ground is still larger than their differences. Therefore, it is correct to assume that in the future the two countries will share more common interests while maintaining some differences on issues, whether bilateral, regional or global. By strengthening their ties through cooperation, both countries will achieve real results and real benefits while overcoming difficulties. Additionally, by expanding on common ground, the two countries can increase mutual respect of each other’s core interests and engage in sincere dialogue to consult, negotiate, compromise and accommodate.
Finally, by establishing a crisis management and damage control mechanism to prevent unexpected incidents from damaging the bilateral relationship, China and the US can limit the scope and duration of damage. In the past, unexpected international incidents did harm bilateral relations, but China and the US have learned from those incidents, which should help us cope with future challenges in a more rational and reasonable way.
Tao Wenzhao is a researcher with the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
