The trickiest problem for South Korea’s diplomacy is balancing the country’s relationships with the United States, China and Japan. Success hinges on consistent pragmatism in both domestic and international affairs.

The second Trump administration’s trade policies and assertive defense diplomacy have unsettled key Asian allies, straining some relationships while drawing others into deeper military cooperation. This approach has raised concerns about diminishing strategic autonomy among U.S. partners and the potential for pushing them closer to China.

South Korean diplomacy needs to strike a balance between two sets of trilateral relationships — ROK-U.S.-Japan and ROK-China-Japan. It all boils down to pragmatism in domestic and international affairs.

With U.S. encouragement, Northeast Asia has seen unprecedented cooperation between Japan and South Korea in recent years. But rising economic frictions, domestic political changes in Japan and especially South Korea, and evolving U.S. global priorities could impede or even reverse recent gains.

Following months of political turmoil, South Korea's upcoming presidential election could lead to a shift in the country's approach to the U.S.-China rivalry, with candidates' stances influencing South Korea's policies on defense, trade, and diplomatic relations with both powers. While Lee Jae-myung may seek closer ties with China, potentially boosting trade and cultural exchanges, his rival is expected to strengthen South Korea's alignment with the U.S., especially on security and technology-related matters.

The tariffs will not spell the end of alliances between the United States and Japan or South Korea, but they are likely to promote a strategic awakening in both countries and accelerate the integration process in East Asia.

A positive peace is needed, one that weaves prosperity and security together for all. The DPRK’s economic connection to the world via Russia is a potential game changer that could reframe possibilities for the Korean Peninsula, and with it impact the dynamics of the North Asia region. Regional leaders should take up the challenge.

China-Japan-ROK cooperation is not aimed at the United States, and it should not be constrained. The sustainability of future trilateral cooperation by China, Japan and the ROK ultimately depends on the continual development of internal dynamics of the three countries.

Progress has been made by the United States to institutionalize three-way strategic cooperation with the ROK and Japan. Under this framework, North Korea, China and Russia are all targeted as America attempts to counterbalance China collectively and comprehensively. The concept is doomed.

Trilateral cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea seems to have solidified recently, although they have not announced a formal alliance. But differences in their views on China and deep-rooted frictions will likely hinder the ongoing pace of concerted action.