The war against Iran is not going well for Israel, which is being bombarded daily, nor is it going well for the US, which has seen its military bases and strategic facilities in the region attacked and degraded by Iranian drones and missiles. Of course, Iran suffers most of all, but it has shown a remarkable capacity to fight a war of attrition, despite the dreadful daily onslaught from the skies. Its reconstituted leadership has shown not a hint of the “unconditional surrender” that Trump is demanding.

The fragile ceasefire in Gaza reflects accelerating recalibration in the Middle East, as U.S. military maneuvers are giving way to economic development promoted by the Arab states, China and the Global South.

Amid the broader context of its strategic retrenchment in the Middle East, Washington aims to preserve its influence without committing substantial resources, something that requires deft skills — something that Donald Trump lacks.

As evidenced by complicity in the Gaza genocide, the U.S.-Israel military symbiosis in the Middle East is increasingly shunned by the international community. What the region needs is aggressive economic development.

The stated intentions of France, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia may add to Israel’s growing international isolation and could prompt a reassessment — though not a fundamental shift — in support for Israel by the United States.

China declined an opportunity to join Iran in its June 2025 confrontation with the United States and Israel. Though Beijing enjoys good relations with the Iranian regime, competing alignments and other considerations convinced PRC policymakers to adopt a low profile during the twelve-day war.

Was the so-called 12-day war a triple victory or a triple defeat? Will Americans tolerate a policy of “Israel first” over “America first”? The answers to these and other key questions will determine whether, and how deeply, the United States could be drawn into the fray again.

The bunker-busting strike by United States will only harden the resolve of many in Iran to push for nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the two countries may fall into a pattern of “attack-retaliate-attack,” which could develop into one of the biggest failures in human history.

The Israel/U.S. Iran offensive is not about nuclear weapons. It is about still another unwarranted proxy war. It aims at the restoration of pre-1979 Iran.

The U.S. president’s mid-may trip Middle East found a region unlike the one he tamed in his first term. His encore performance, though bold, reveals a region slipping from the grasp of his once-potent diplomatic playbook. GCC states are increasingly asserting themselves as they look for harmony.