It’s impossible to predict the outcome of a random experiment. Yet that is the task that awaits us as we try to make sense of another Donald Trump era.

In a dramatic escalation of trade tensions, US President Donald Trump has imposed an across-the-board 10% tariff on goods from China, threatened a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and vowed similar measures against the European Union. His stated objective is to secure deals to halt the flow of drugs and unauthorized immigration into the United States, suggesting that tariffs will now be an instrument of border security. But trade barriers on this scale could destabilize global markets, drive up prices for American consumers, and potentially drag the US – and the world – into recession. In betting that the potential economic fallout is worth the gains in border security, Trump is gambling with America’s long-term influence and prosperity.

Trump’s old concept of tariffs originates in U.S. policies from the 19th century. He believes that he excels in the art of creating a “level playing field” to generate jobs at home. But what he is proposing would be the highest tariff level since the Great Depression.

The timing of China’s new stimulus package is not coincidental. Arriving just before the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic, the announcement was well-received by equity investors, leading to a surge of more than 15% in the country’s main stock indices.

The rare 50-basis-point interest rate cut is the American central bank’s response to a slowing economy. It will inevitably have far-reaching effects. For China, it is likely to influence capital flows and cause fluctuations in China’s financial markets. It will also put upward pressure on the yuan, which could hurt the country’s exporters.

The implications of recent stock market volatility in the United States, combined with slowing job growth and rising unemployment, are causing a panic and triggering discussions about an inflection point. The signs of a recession are rattling the market’s shared hope for a soft landing.

Only through steadfast multilateral policy coordination and flexible, effective measures can global financial markets weather the storm safely and achieve stability and development.

Carefully parsed economic data may serve as a smokescreen to conceal the genuine state of the U.S. economy and mislead investors. The fog confuses both the observers and the promoters of perceptions, rendering everyone incapable of gauging the seriousness of underlying issues.

China's economic growth has slowed while American politicians continue to advocate for protectionism, which is concerning as history shows that free markets are key to prosperity. China's struggles underscore the need for more economic freedom, not less.

The United States has seen consistent monthly growth throughout the year, but certain risk factors are accumulating. The future trajectory of the U.S. economy will depend on the relative development of economic growth drivers and the potential risks. China must respond thoughtfully.