China-U.S. relations could turn for the worse when the epidemic passes. But there’s a glimmer of hope. If they take prompt action to ease the tension and cooperate in mitigating the health crisis, they can avoid what might be a devastating geopolitical conflict in the post-pandemic world.

Many factors are aligning to dim the future, but it’s important to keep trying. While the two rivals are stuck in a mode of competition, suspicion and hard bargaining, the cliff can still be avoided.

It’s not a question of wanting to follow through but having the ability to do so, given the complex downward pressures brought by coronavirus epidemic.

A peaceful future for China and the United States will depend on their ability to engage in benign competition. Can they find ways to compete while maintaining cooperation, or will they move toward decoupling and open hostility? The next chapter is yet to be written.

The road to trade peace is treacherous, especially since most of the obligations under phase one are one-sided and place China at a disadvantage. But tariffs are becoming less useful as leverage for the United States in the face of Chinese economic resilience.

While the Trump administration has been quick to celebrate the recently-signed Phase One trade deal between the US and China, the deal is not progress for Sino-US relations. Instead, the limited agreement simply secures US affirmation of Chinese plans that were already underway.

While the US-China trade war has reached a milestone with the signing of the Phase One deal, many fear that the negative economic impacts of the original tariffs will go unnoticed.

The Phase One Agreement between China and the U.S. on their trade dispute was signed in Washington, D.C. on 15th January, sealing a temporary truce in their trade war, which had already lasted almost two years. This is a most welcome development, not only for China and the U.S., but also for the rest of the world. It is expected to usher in a period of relative calm and stability as well as reduced uncertainty and unpredictability, which should in turn increase both investment and consumption globally, and result in higher rates of economic growth.

The phase one deal has put the brakes on souring relations, but it may not reflect any clear winner. One benefit, however, is the easing of uncertainty.

Thorny, fundamental issues have been left to the next round, and nobody can predict how further talks will develop. Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential election season is heating up, and the world should be prepared for the worst.