Early February’s row over the Chinese balloon exposed the sorry state of affairs that is U.S.-China relations in a highly visible and alarming fashion. The fallout from the incident puts what was a period of relative calm in jeopardy, and will certainly affect exchanges in the near future for the worse.

The recent balloon incident will likely ensure that Sino-American relations will remain poor for many months, and looking at past incidents could shed light on the challenges of soon overcoming the crisis.

The potential transfers of lethal military materiel from China to Russia is a deeply concerning possibility. If it were to occur, there would be fierce reactions from the United States and Europe—and China’s relations with both would further deteriorate. There would also be global consequences, as the world might bifurcate into two competing blocs and a new global Cold War may begin.

Paradoxically, last year set a record for trade between China and the United States, notwithstanding hostilities. But while the internal dynamics for economic interaction and trade remain resilient for now, some analysts see clouds on the horizon.

It’s not in China’s best interests to be trapped in a bilateral tit-for-tat with the United States. We can do better by reaching out constructively to other developed countries. We will win the contest if we can do this.

The discovery of a Chinese surveillance satellite over the continental U.S. has led to the most direct speculation of direct conflict with China so far this year. America’s current and previous power struggles with hegemonic, powerful nations shows what may be missing from the equation when it comes to smoothing over U.S.-China ties.

Technology is ground zero in the conflict between the United States and China. For the American hegemon, it is about the leading edge of geostrategic power and the means for sustained prosperity. For China, it holds the key to the indigenous innovation required of a rising power. The tech war now underway between the two superpowers could well be the defining struggle of the twenty-first century.

Both major political parties in the U.S. will manipulate the China issue to show unity, which will affect China-U.S. relations. Faced with an extremely polarized country, a Congress with no self-control and a U.S. administration subject to pressure, China must refine and enrich its own policies.

Consultations with island authorities on trade shows American double-dealing. The visit undermined core Chinese interests and had a negative effect. It will do harm but no good in China-U.S. relations and will only undermine U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Beijing visit.

America’s efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains may limit China’s economic options in the short term. But this is not sustainable. In the long term, the rise of the Chinese economy cannot be stopped.