It is a great pleasure to revisit Hong Kong virtually and join friends, old and new, online at the Hong Kong Forum on U.S.-China Relations to discuss the bilateral relationship and explore the path forward.

All eyes are on the upcoming leaders’ meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), to be held in San Francisco from November 11-17. And with good reason: there is a distinct possibility that US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of this pan-regional gathering, exactly one year after their last summit in Bali on the eve of the annual G20 summit.

China’s Foreign Minister paid an official two-day visit to Washington last week, laying the groundwork for an anticipated meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in November. The two sides had a “constructive” and detailed set of discussions on specific issues, but the most important outcome may be that a normal diplomatic interaction took place after a long hiatus and substantial acrimony in the bilateral relationship.

More than ever, China and the United States need to meet each other halfway. They need to find new cooperation points in a spirit of mutual benefit. Emerging from the deep freeze presents both an important test and a great opportunity.

In the wake of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to the U.S., windows of opportunity are opening. The constructive attitude on both sides is paying off as common ground is sought to anchor bilateral ties. This is a positive sign for the future.

China’s internet regulations and perceived willingness to mobilize its domestic tech industry for espionage have led to preventative measures being taken by the U.S. in the form of bans and sanctions against Chinese tech.

The debate over the difference between tactics and strategy is as rich as it is enduring. In his seminal 1996 article in the Harvard Business Review, Harvard’s Michael Porter tackled this issue head on. While his focus was business, his arguments can be applied much more broadly – including to today’s Sino-American rivalry.

Domestic stability on both sides is the key to managing China-U.S. relations. But political calm is an uncertain — even unlikely — commodity, given the mixed messages delivered by high-level American officials before, during and after their visits to Beijing. The coming U.S. presidential election virtually guarantees heated rhetoric on China.

The first debate between the Republican Party’s candidates for next year’s US presidential election revealed major schisms over foreign policy. While former US Vice President Mike Pence and former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley defended America’s support for Ukraine in Russia’s war of aggression, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy expressed skepticism. Former President Donald Trump – the unquestioned front-runner – skipped the event, but he, too, has objected to US involvement in that conflict.

US President Joe Biden’s recent executive order restricting American investments in Chinese semiconductors, microelectronics, quantum information technology, and artificial intelligence marks another escalation in the Sino-American tech war. In the context of the two superpowers’ intensifying geopolitical rivalry, the chances that this conflict will be resolved anytime soon are virtually zero, to the detriment of the global economy.