Washington intends to shed its reliance on multilateral mechanisms and form a new economic framework based on bilateral consultations. The IPEF is more of a contract aimed at solving particular issues than an agreement to ratchet up economic integration. And, of course, it aims to dent China’s influence.

Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen will assume leadership of ASEAN this year, and bring with him a positive attitude towards China and a recent history of disengagement with the West. Observers expect that the regional organization’s agenda will turn away from topics that will directly challenge China’s influence over Southeast Asia.

ASEAN is the crossroads of the Pacific, and one of the world’s most strategically valuable trade routes. Their high volume of trade with both the U.S. and China put them at the intersection of something else - the escalating struggle between the two superpowers for global supremacy.

An abundance of examples show that countries in Southeast Asia want to develop beneficial relationships with both the U.S. and China. Thus, the U.S. hedge against China in the region is doomed to fail, despite the best efforts of visiting American officials.

While the U.S. pays lip service to the notion that ASEAN is at the core of the Indo-Pacific region, U.S. actions show it is side-stepping to another direction. By contrast, China’s attitude toward Southeast Asia looks much more sincere.

The idea that ASEAN countries rely on the U.S. for security and on China for economy may be overstated. What is true is that they benefit from cooperation with China under the principle of mutual benefit and reciprocity, and they don’t want to rock the boat.

Southeast Asia’s coalition of small-to-medium sized nations have hosted superpower conflicts, yet they are overshadowed by larger regional powers on the global stage time and time again. American leadership will struggle to find welcoming allies there without a drastic upgrade in its dealings with ASEAN member nations.

The US’ absence at the recent East Asia Summit sent a powerful message to Southeast Asia, a region whose massive population, stellar economic growth, and strategic location would make it a crucial theater. The US may be able to recover, but it must act swiftly – and soon.

While ASEAN countries remain reliant on the United States for defense, they don’t want to be part of any U.S.-led encirclement of China because they fear their interests could be harmed and their neutrality challenged.

ASEAN’s best strategy for keeping China’s revisionist ambitions at bay and preserving maximum room for strategic maneuver is to engage the USA.