During his first campaign for office, Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on China was dismissed by many as a rhetorical flourish, not serious policy. Today, his threat to impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods or revoking China’s most favored nation status must be regarded as credible and actionable.

Trump 2.0 is expected to be more mature than it was in Round 1. He will likely place greater emphasis on leadership and earning respect from other countries. If both sides commit to communication, managing differences and deepening cooperation, relations can find a new balance in a complex international environment.

Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese imports serve his nationalist base but ultimately act as a deceptive "shell game," shifting costs to American consumers and producers. While some industries may benefit short-term, the broader economy and middle-class Americans will ultimately bear the long-term consequences.

Despite his unpredictability, Donald Trump seems committed to the current strategic trajectory. But China has gained a deeper understanding and accumulated significant experience. It will likely approach America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy with greater confidence and composure in Trump’s second term.

"Reagan asked Gorbachev: If Martians attacked the United States, would you come to our defense? And Gorbachev said yes, and then asked Reagan: If Martians attacked the USSR, would you come to our defense? And President Reagan said yes."

Rick Waters is the managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice. He previously served as the U.S. State Department’s inaugural director of the Office of China Coordination (China House) and as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia in the Biden administration. In a recent interview with James Chau of China-US Focus in Tokyo, Rick Waters addresses potential risks and possible cooperation between the U.S. and China.

America’s China policy, characterized by major-power competition, has had a subtle yet significant influence on the Taiwan question. The next U.S. administration, whether led by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, is likely make changes. The devil will be in the details.

The Trump White House is likely to ignite another round of inflation in new trade and tech wars. And that could drive U.S.-China ties to the edge.

In the run-up to the 2018 mid-term elections, then-President of the US Donald J Trump began to ratchet up the intensity of both his rhetoric and policies targeting China – more specifically, the US-China trade relationship. Castigating the trade deficit as one in which China was unfairly taking advantage of China, Trump fired his first shot in July, imposing tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s call for the U.S. to prioritize aid to Ukraine over Taiwan drew scrutiny, especially given rising cross-Strait tensions. While Tsai’s stance may momentarily shift Trump’s administration's attention in East Asia, it risks undermining his likely focus on ending the costly Ukraine conflict and confronting China more aggressively, with Taiwan as a key flashpoint.