Both China and the U.S. have instituted a waiting period before the $50 billion tariffs take effect, with the hope that negotiation may prevent either administration from having to implement them. How likely is it that the countries will come to an agreement?

While Xi’s speech at the Boao Forum did not outline any particularly new or bold initiatives, policy makers in Washington, D.C. should take these market opening moves as the basis for negotiating an agreement.

The world will soon witness a historic test of wills between China and the United States. At stake is the strategic leadership of East Asia and, eventually, the international order. On both North Korea and trade, China is set to come out on top.

China plays a positive role in the world system.

China has the means and the will to take the US on.

President Trump, whose popularity has recently risen, according to polls, still feels that he is a hero who dares to challenge China. He seems to be unaware of the danger of economic instability.

As RAND points out, government subsidization of aircraft manufacturers is a conflict between Boeing and Airbus that the U.S. and E.U. have yet to resolve. If they do not establish norms now, there will be little recourse against generous Chinese governmental support of its aerospace industry in the coming years.

The use of tariffs to address the United States’ trade imbalance with key trade partners will hamper longstanding U.S. economic leadership. For the U.S., addressing the trade imbalance and reviving U.S. manufacturing should not come at the expense of disrupting the established economic trade order and heightening perceptions of American exceptionalism among U.S. allies.

With a 3 month window, if the two countries can engage in meaningful talks, a deal is still possible, and a trade war can be kept at bay.

US manufacturing job losses as a result of technological advances is inevitable, but China and America can manage the resulting hardship together.