In trying to push back against China’s rise, the U.S. may be legitimizing its rival as a world power.

Codependency never ends well in personal relationships. Judging by the ever-escalating trade war between the United States and China, the same is true of economic relationships.

A messy divorce of the fusion between the Chinese and American economies – the end of Chimerica – looms. This raises the specter of the first “hegemonic showdown” between the United States and China.

Either China will revise its industrial policy to allow U.S. companies reciprocal market access, or the tariffs will cause U.S. companies to disengage from China and bring manufacturing back to the U.S., or source imports from countries that do not pose a long-term threat to U.S. security.

James Nolt argues that what Trump seeks from China in the trade war is managed trade, not free trade. Unfortunately for China, the model of a “managed trade” solution crafted during the 1980s between the U.S. and Japan is not an option.

As the trade war escalates further, China considers options that could result in the destruction of both its own and the American economy.

U.S. companies operating in China generally oppose the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs and advocate for engagement with Chinese businesses. However, CEOs have become more vocal in support of Trump on specific issues, such as market access and regulations.

Both sides think they can win a trade war. One of them is wrong. The war will show which one that is.

China-US trade and global trade will stay on track, because President Trump simply can’t dictate everything.