The U.S. president’s policies have fueled deglobalization and disrupted the existing international order, but they have also pushed countries around the world to explore new models of cooperation and foster new approaches to trade.

The EU and U.S. have agreed to a tactical cease-fire, not a strategic settlement. As long as Europe pursues strategic autonomy and Washington replaces rules-based multilateralism with transactional deals, fresh disputes are inevitable.

Since the U.S.-China trade war began in April, Chinese companies have faced high tariffs and economic uncertainty, prompting them to reshore production to the U.S., shift manufacturing to developing countries, and diversify into other markets. Despite higher costs and regulatory challenges, they are balancing supply chain stability with expansion in Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe to maintain their low-cost business models.

Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true. That ancient proverb comes to mind when considering the eagerness of America’s trade partners around the world to negotiate deals with US President Donald Trump’s administration. Four countries already have, with Indonesia the latest to do so – and possibly the first to regret it.

The intent of the United States was to coerce China into making concessions. But this didn’t work. China was only inspired to reach out to other trading partners and become more independent through home-grown technological development.

Trump’s ‘America First’ protectionist tactics are supposed to create advantages for the U.S. in trade and freeze out China in theory, but expect that the world needs America’s consumers to continue. New connections forming amid the trade war could mean instead, the U.S. is left out in the cold.

If the United States can adapt flexibly and prioritize consensus with its trading partners, it may solidify its economic dominance. Otherwise, persistent high tariffs risk deepening global trade fragmentation and will challenge America’s long-term influence.

The most recent trade talks between the United States and China in Geneva and London provided little more than temporary relief in the conflict between the world’s two largest economies. Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to tout the stopgap measures as a “deal” that benefits America, China reads the scoreboard differently – and believes it is winning. From its vantage point, it has weathered the storm and emerged more confident, more self-reliant, and more convinced that its long game is paying off.

Global trade is evolving, not ending, as structural limits on U.S. protectionism and the rise of regional agreements beyond U.S. influence sustain economic integration. While the U.S. remains the dominant power, the U.S.-centric trade regime is gradually declining.

The genius of China’s approach is that it never triggers a full-scale crisis. It ensures that American companies and politicians exist in a state of perpetual anxiety. Inventories shrink to manage costs and procurement becomes a game of roulette. Meanwhile, Beijing can modulate the pressure.