U.S. leaders have become complacent about Taiwan. Americans need to ask themselves what level of risk they are willing to take to defend Taiwan. The U.S. is obligated to assist the island under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, and as China grows stronger militarily, Taiwan deserves more attention than it is receiving in the U.S.

Tsai Ing-wen should give up unrealistic expectations on the US-Japan “values alliance”, and reconsider Taiwan’s role in the South China Sea issue. It’s not too late for her to look at the history of the Chinese nation and link up that history with Taiwan’s future and corresponding rights to Taiping Island.

China will not allow Taiwan, which has historically been part of China, to break away. This is a permanent red line for China. Some far-sighted people in the US have called for adjusting the US’ Taiwan policy, abolish the Taiwan Relations Act and the “six assurances” to herald a fully normal and healthy bilateral relationship with China, and this should happen sooner rather than later.

The more the U.S. emphasizes “rebalance”, the more we see that the most awkward balance is between White House and Congress, between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, and between U.S. allies and China. A US House resolution that offers tacit support to Taiwan independence was a strategic error that should be corrected for the sake of all sides.

All indications are that Taiwan’s new leader and the governing apparatus around her are half-hearted about the 1992 Consensus and strengthening cross-Strait relations. Her inaugural speech reflects not American-style candor but Japanese-style victimhood, and does not offer a viable way forward. A period of uncertainty and unpleasant surprises in cross-Strait relations lies ahead.

To maintain the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations that Beijing and Taipei have enjoyed for the past seven years, which have benefitted both sides, the winners of the Taiwan election must abandon any ambition for Taiwan independence and recognize the 1992 Consensus and its one-China principle.

The 2016 election has shaken up Taiwan’s political scene in a big way, as voters in a post-industrial society seek alternatives to the traditional parties and agendas. It foreshadows a deep transformation of Taiwanese politics, and the ramifications for cross-Strait relations will take time to evolve.

Ms. Tsai Ing-wen, 59, Taiwan's first female, newly-elected president, leads the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which has traditionally advocated for a strong Taiwanese identity Her strength moving forward will be contingent on the economy improving, which ironically, may depend on her relationship and guanxi with Mainland China.

The recent U.S. arms sales decision regarding Taiwan led to a more moderate Chinese government reaction than seen in many previous transactions. The U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan serve multiple purposes and are likely to continue whoever is the leader of the next government in Taipei and in Washington.

Breaking the cycle of tension in the Taiwan Strait requires bold initiatives that mean abandoning deeply held desires in China, Taiwan, and the United States. Chinese leaders should perhaps at least think about the previously unthinkable: accepting an independent Taiwan—under very strict conditions.