Changes have already come to the nature of war, but non-state actors will change international relations more broadly in the future, becoming an important force affecting the evolution of the international order and changing the balance of power.

While the United States and its Western allies might wish that China would adopt their position and help to mediate an end to the crisis, China has crafted a stance that conforms to its own interests. It simply doesn’ t have the influence other countries may imagine.

The Russia-Ukraine War is driving global change in both the economic and security domains. China and the United States will face a different world than existed before the Russian military operation that began on February 24.

No matter how things go on the battlefield, Russia seems to have lost politically, economically and diplomatically. While the strategic center of gravity has shifted, Russia remains obsessed with territorial expansion and control of natural resources.

Russian President Vladimir Putin thought he could quickly capture Kyiv and replace Ukraine’s government. Whether he was misled by poor intelligence or by his own fantasies about history, his “smash and grab” failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. He then turned to a brutal bombardment of cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv to terrorize the civilian population into submission – as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic upshot is that Ukraine’s heroic resistance has been accompanied by increasing civilian suffering.

As the global community turns against an increasingly isolated Russia, China’s silence on the topic becomes more easily interpreted as support for Putin’s war. The untenable stance will be sure to drive more friction between the West and China and puts China’s foreign interests in further jeopardy.

China has remained relatively quiet on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to the annoyance of the West. There may be several explanations for Beijing’s aloofness.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the governance of the northern region, posing a threat to economic cooperation and risking military escalation. Changes to the framework and their effect on Russia are worthy of close attention going forward.

Russia has quietly become a major player in Southeast Asia by arming and supporting many of China’s rivals. But strategic alignments in the region may soon change following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to a growing dependence on China.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been costly, and Russia has reportedly requested assistance from China. The U.S. and its Western allies have also opened dialogue with Chinese officials, and Beijing now faces a fork in the road and whichever route it chooses will define international relations for a long time to come.